从反对派与政府互动差异看独联体国家“颜色革命”

‘Colour Revolution’in Commonwealth of Independent States:Differences of Interaction Between the Opposition and the Government

在21世纪初主要波及独联体国家的第一波国际抗议浪潮--"颜色革命"中,独联体各国反对派通过人员、组织和话语三个层面对民众进行动员,鼓动群众参与反政府运动。由于所掌控的资源不同,各国反对派的动员能力也不尽相同。当反对派的动员能力较强而政府应对软弱无能时,"颜色革命"极易获得成功,格鲁吉亚、乌克兰和吉尔吉斯斯坦的案例突出反映了这一特点。这三国政府由于统治集团分裂、安全力量倒戈和领导人失误等问题,无法应对反对派的动员,最终政权发生了更迭。而当反对派动员能力弱且政府应对强硬高效时,"颜色革命"极易失败,哈萨克斯坦、白俄罗斯、阿塞拜疆等国属于此类情况。由此可见,独联体国家是否出现"颜色革命",不是反对派或政府一方的原因,而是受到两者间互动关系的影响。

In the first wave of international protests of the‘colour revolution’,which mainly affected countries of Commonwealth of Independent States at the beginning of the 21 st century,the opposition in these states mobilized the masses through personnel,organization and discourse,encouraging the masses to participate in anti-government movements.Due to the different resources under their control,the mobilization capacity of the oppositions varies from country to country.When the opposition has a strong mobilization capacity,if the government is weak and incompetent in dealing with it,the‘colour revolution’can easily succeed as the cases in Georgia,Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.Due to the split of the ruling clique,the defection of security forces and the mistakes of the leaders,the three governments were unable to cope with the mobilization of the opposition,which ultimately led to the change of regime.However,when the opposition is weak in mobilization and the government is tough and efficient in response,the‘colour revolution’will easily fail.Countries such as Kazakhstan,Belarus,Azerbaijan fall into this category.Whether the‘colour revolution’occurs in the Common wealth of Independent States is not the cause of the opposition or the government,it is affected by the interaction between the two.