船舶维修项目资源需求预测模型建模研究

Modeling research on resource demand forecasting model of ship maintenance project

随着船舶大量列装和用船日趋频繁,船舶维修保障能力亟需提升,其中如何对项目资源进行科学配置管理是当前面临的重要问题。文章对船舶维修项目资源需求预测进行建模研究,以某型船舶坞修项目为例,通过梳理项目的一般流程,总结了6大工程分项,在此基础上,对预测对象即项目资源进行了分类;随后重点研究了分类资源的特点,提出了项目资源需求预测对历史的经验数据和实时的待维修船舶现状评估数据的要求,建立了基于模糊评价的统计加权预测模型,给出船舶维修时保障资源的需求预测。文章的研究是船舶维修项目资源优化配置的基础,可为业务部门制定船舶维修工作计划提供理论依据和参考方案。

With the increasing number of ships and ships,the ship maintenance and support capacity needs to be improved.Based on the general flow of the ship repair project,the paper summarizes the six sub-projects,and then classifies the forecast object as the project resource.Then,the characteristics of the classified resource are studied,and the historical empirical data and the real-time evaluation data of the ship repair status are put forward.A statistical weighted predictive model is used to predict the demand of ship maintenance resources.The research of the article is the basis of the optimal allocation of ship maintenance project resources,which can provide the theoretical basis and reference scheme for the business department to formulate the ship maintenance work plan.