气候变化和人类活动影响下北京市需水量预测

Water demand prediction in Beijing under influence of climate change and human activities

气候变化和人类活动是影响陆面水文循环过程及水资源供需平衡最重要的两大驱动因素。采用综合、系统的方法构建了北京市需水量预测模型,并考虑了诸多因素及其相互关系,对不同用水部门的需水量进行了计算。结果表明:①2019~2030年期间,北京市总需水量将至少增长15.1%(最多增长33.8%),相应的缺水量为3.94亿~19.22亿m^3;②气候变化将在很大程度上影响北京市的水平衡,跨流域调水和水资源保护技术在缓解水资源短缺方面发挥着重要的作用;③鉴于模型采用的需水量计算方法具有普遍性、情景设计和分析过程具有可移植性,所建立的SD模型可以推广至其他特大城市进行需水量的预测及分析。

Climate change and human activities are the two most important driving factors influencing the land-surface hydrological cycle and water supply and demand balance.A comprehensive and systematic method is used to build a water demand prediction model for Beijing.This model has taken many factors and their mutual relations into consideration and could calculate the water demand of different sectors.The results show that:①the total water demand will increase at least 15.1%(up to 33.8%)from 2019 to 2030 and the corresponding water shortage ranges from 0.394 billion to 1.922 billion m^3;②climate variation is likely to affect Beijing's water balance to a large extent,and the inter-basin water transfer project and water conservation technology play important roles in alleviating water shortage in the future;③the proposed system dynamics model is applicable to other mega cities due to its generality in water demand calculation and applicability in scenario design and analysis procedures.