基于改进AHP法的蓄滞洪区可持续发展模糊评价

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on flood detention basin sustainable development by improved AHP method

运用传统的层次分析法对蓄滞洪区进行评价时易陷入判断矩阵不一致的问题,因此采用构建三标度(-1,0,1)矩阵的改进层次分析法,构建了3个层次、18个指标的评价体系,以期对蓄滞洪区可持续发展状况进行综合评价。在此基础上,以江西省丰城市清丰山溪蓄滞洪区为例开展了评价分析。评价结果表明:清丰山溪蓄滞洪区2012~2016年可持续发展水平为一般,其中,人均可利用水资源和每万人拥有医生数等因素是制约其可持续发展水平的关键因素;人均耕地面积、人均居住面积、人均绿地面积等指标随着人口的增加呈不断恶化的趋势;各区域内经济各项指标的差异发展,造成了蓄滞洪区内各区域的可持续发展不平衡。

The judgment matrix is likely inconsistent in flood detention basin evaluation by using the traditional analytic hierarchy process(AHP).Therefore,the three scale(-1,0,1)matrix was adopted to improve the traditional AHP method in this paper.Then,we constructed an evaluation system including 3 hierarchies and 18 indicators to evaluate the sustainable development of flood detention basin in Qingfengshanxi basin,Fengcheng City,Jiangxi Province.The evaluation results showed that the sustainable development level of flood detention basin in Qingfengshan stream basin from 2012 to 2016 was average.The per capita available water resources and per 10000 capita doctors’number restricted the sustainable development in Qingfengshanxi basin.Per capita cultivated land area,living space and green area indicators showed decreasing trends with the increase of population.The differences in economic indicators in various regions resulted in imbalance of sustainable development in the flood detention basin.