大病保险效率与减贫研究——基于DEA与省际面板分析

Research on the Efficiency and Poverty Reduction of Critical Disease Insurance——Based on DEA and Interprovincial Panel Analysis

本文运用DEA模型分析2013-2016年我国大病保险运行效率,随后使用Tobit模型对影响大病保险运行效率的环境因素进行定量分析。结果显示,效率前沿面及远离前沿面省份在四年间基本一致,2015年各地区规模效率激增拉动总技术效率提高,地区经济发展水平、政府预算支出占当地GDP比重和平均教育年限显著影响大病保险运行效率。随后运用省级非平衡面板OLS模型分析大病保险减贫效果,结果显示,大病保险政策的实施可以改善地区贫困,但实际报销比例等核心变量未显著减缓地区贫困,说明大病保险的精准扶贫效果尚有进步空间。最后,本文对我国城乡居民大病保险未来的改革和发展提出建议。

This paper used the provincial panel data from 2013 to 2016 to analyze the Critical Illness Insurance(CII)from the perspectives of efficiency and poverty reduction effect.DEA was used for efficiency analysis,and then Tobit model was used for quantitative analysis of environmental factors affecting the operational efficiency of CII.The results show that the provinces on the efficiency frontier and far away from the frontier were basically the same over the four years.In 2015,the surge of scale efficiency in each region led to the improvement of total technical efficiency.The regional economic development level,the proportion of government budget expenditure in local GDP and the average length of education significantly affected the operation efficiency of CII.Nonbalance panel OLS model was used for poverty reduction effect analysis・The results show that the implementation of CII policies can improve regional poverty,but the actual reimbursement ratio and other core indicators do not significantly reduce regional poverty,indicating that the poverty reduction effect of CII has not reached the expected level.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions on the future reform and development of CII for urban and rural residents.