基于对等度量模式的配电网投入产出效益评价与预测

Evaluation and Prediction Method for Input-output Benefits of Distribution Network Based on Peer-to-peer Measurement Mode

针对当前配电网规划方案评价过程中因未能实现投入与产出在对等条件下的衡量而导致评估效果有限、难以支撑精细化投资决策等问题,提出了一种新的配电网投入产出效益评价及预测方法.首先,通过产出效益的支撑条件分析,提出配电网投入与产出效益评估的对等度量模式.在此基础上,选取能够准确反映配电网投入与产出效益对应关系的评价指标,建立了配电网投入产出效益评价指标体系.继而,提出了基于费用效率法的配电网投入产出效益综合评价模型,并结合量化关联关系分析,提出了配电网投入与产出效益预测方法.最后,通过实例分析验证了所提方法的有效性和实用性.

Aimed at the problems in the evaluation under the existing distribution network planning scheme such as lim⁃ited evaluation effect and difficulty in supporting the refined investment decision-making,which result from the failure to achieve peer-to-peer measurement of input-output,a novel evaluation and prediction method for the input-output ben⁃efits of distribution network is proposed.First,through the analysis of the supporting conditions for output benefits,a peer-to-peer measurement mode for the input-output benefit evaluation of distribution network is put forward.On this ba⁃sis,the evaluation index that can accurately reflect the corresponding relationship between distribution network input and output benefits is selected,and an evaluation index system is established.Moreover,a comprehensive evaluation model is formulated based on the cost efficiency method,and a prediction method for the input-output benefits of distri⁃bution network is proposed with the combination of quantitative correlation analysis.Finally,the validity and practica⁃bility of the proposed method are verified by a case study.