中国地球气候系统模式的发展及其模拟和预估

Development of climate and earth system models in China:Past achievements and new CMIP6 fesults

地球气候系统模式是开展多学科、多圈层集成研究的重要平台,其发展是国际地学领域特别是全球变化领域竞争的前沿。中国的地球气候系统模式研发工作始于20世纪80年代,最近10年得到快速发展。研发格局上已经形成中国科学院、有关部委和高校三足鼎立的局面。文中在简要回顾中国地球气候系统模式早期发展历史的基础上,总结了中国参加第6次耦合模式比较计划的9个地球气候系统模式的技术特点,初步评估了中国4个模式对全球和东亚气候模拟的基本性能,分析了其在4种共享社会经济路径情景下对全球降水与温度的预估变化及其与平衡态气候敏感度的联系。最后,结合国际态势,从发展的角度提出未来中国气候模式研发工作需要加强的8个方向。

The Earth-climate system model(ECSM)is an important platform for multi-disciplinary and multi-sphere integration research,and its development is at the frontier of international geosciences,especially in the field of global change study.The research and development(R&D)of ECSM in China began in the 1980s and great progress has been achieved in the past 10 years.In China,ECSMs are now mainly developed at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,various ministries and universities;thus,a tripartite situation has formed regarding the model development.Following a brief review of the development history of ECSMs in China,this paper summarizes the technical characteristics of the nine Chinese ECSMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and preliminarily assesses the basic performances of four Chinese models in global climate simulation and climate simulation in East Asia.The projected changes in global precipitation and temperature and associated relationship with the equilibrium climate sensitivity under four shared socioeconomic path scenarios are also discussed.Finally,combined with the international situation and from the perspective of model development,eight directions are proposed for the future development of Chinese ECSMs.