中国热带海-气相互作用与ENSO动力学及预测研究进展

A review of research on tropical air-sea interaction,ENSO dynamics,and ENSO prediction in China

国际上针对海洋-大气系统的观测、理论和模拟方面已经开展了广泛而深入的研究,为短期气候预测水平的不断提升奠定了坚实基础,这其中中国学者做出了许多重要贡献。文中简要回顾了中国学者70年来在热带海-气相互作用与ENSO动力学及预测方面的研究进展。其中,热带海-气相互作用部分主要涉及4个方面的内容:热带太平洋气候特征与ENSO现象、热带印度洋海温主要模态及其与太平洋相互作用、热带大西洋海温主要模态及与海盆的相互作用、中高纬度海-气系统对ENSO的影响;ENSO动力学包括7个方面的内容:基本理论的相关研究、ENSO相关的诊断与模拟研究、两类ENSO相关研究、ENSO触发机制相关研究、ENSO与其他现象的相互作用、外部强迫与大气遥相关、气候变化与ENSO响应;ENSO预测主要包括2个方面的内容:动力-统计ENSO预测方法、ENSO预测系统与应用。最后,还讨论了上述相关方面亟待解决的问题。

Remarkable progress has been made in observations,theoretical studies and numerical simulations of the oceanatmosphere system,laying a solid foundation for the improvement of short-term climate predictions.Chinese scholars have made important contributions to the progress mentioned above.This paper reviews research in China on tropical air-sea interaction and ENSO dynamics and prediction in the past 70 years.The tropical air-sea interaction studies mainly focus on four aspects:the characteristics of the tropical Pacific climate system and ENSO phenomena;the major modes of the tropical Indian Ocean SSTs and their interactions with the tropical Pacific;the major modes of the tropical Atlantic SSTs and inter-basin interactions;the influence of the mid-and high-latitude air-sea system on ENSO.The ENSO dynamics studies involve seven aspects:fundamental theories of ENSO;the diagnosis and simulation of ENSO;the two types of ENSO;the mechanisms for ENSO initiation;the interactions between ENSO and other phenomena;external forcing and teleconnections;climate change and ENSO responses.The ENSO prediction studies mainly address the dynamical-statistical methods of ENSO prediction,and ENSO prediction systems as well as their applications.Finally,some of the issues in these areas that still need further studies were discussed.