中国干旱事件成因和变化规律的研究进展与展望

Progress and prospect on the study of causes and variation regularity of droughts in China

干旱是世界上危害最广泛、最严重的自然灾害之一。中国地处典型季风气候区,干旱灾害的影响尤为突出。国际上对干旱问题已经进行了大量研究,逐渐由对干旱的定性和表象的认识发展到对干旱客观特征的定量认识和形成机理的深入揭示。自新中国成立以来,中国从以往仅对一些重大干旱事件的零散认识逐步发展到与国际干旱研究的完全接轨,干旱研究取得了长足进展。但是,目前对干旱研究取得的科学进展缺乏客观全面的整体认识,对干旱研究的发展方向尚未能充分洞察。为此,基于国际干旱研究现状,系统回顾了新中国成立以来中国干旱研究的历程,总结了中国干旱研究的重要进展,划分出了干旱事件的现象特征和时空分布、干旱形成机理及变化规律、干旱灾害风险和骤发性干旱研究兴起等中国干旱研究的4个主要发展过程。并从干旱事件特征、干旱时空分布、干旱变化规律、干旱成因、干旱影响机制、干旱风险形成过程以及干旱对气候变暖的响应、骤发性干旱的特殊性等方面归纳凝练了中国干旱研究的主要成果。同时,结合干旱研究的国际前沿、热点问题和发展趋势,科学分析了中国干旱研究的不足和问题,提出了中国未来干旱研究需要在加强典型干旱频发区综合性干旱科学试验研究的基础上,对干旱形成的多因子协同影响、陆-气作用对干旱形成发展的作用、骤发性干旱的判别及监测预测、各类干旱之间转换规律及其非一致性特征、关键影响期对农业干旱发展的作用、干旱对气候变暖响应的复杂性、干旱灾害风险的科学评估等重点科学问题上取得突破。

Droughts are one of the most serious and extensive natural disasters in the world.As a typical monsoon climate area,China is particularly affected by drought disasters.A great deal of researches on droughts have been carried out in the world,and studies have been evolved from qualitative and presentative understandings to quantitative descriptions of objective characteristics and in-depth exploration of the formation mechanism.Since the founding of the People's Republic of China,considerable progresses have been made in the field of drought research from sporadic studies of some major drought events to gradual integration with international drought studies.However,there is no objective and clear understanding of scientific progresses of drought research and the insight of the development direction of drought research is insufficient.Based on comprehensive understanding of the current status of international drought research,this paper systematically reviews the history of drought research in China since the founding of the People's Republic of China,summarizes important progresses on drought research in China,and divides the progress into four major stages:Characteristics and spatial and temporal distributions of drought events,formation mechanisms and change regularities of droughts,drought disaster risks,and occurrences of flash droughts.This paper also summarizes important achievements of drought researches in China in view of the characteristics of drought events,the spatial and temporal distribution of droughts,the change rules of droughts,the causes of droughts,the influencing mechanisms of droughts,the formation process of drought risks,the response of droughts to climate warming and the particularity of sudden droughts.Moreover,in combination with the international cutting-edge studies and hotspot issues and development trend of drought research,this paper scientifically analyzes the weaknesses and problems of drought researches in China,and proposes that China needs to make breakthroughs on six major scientific issues in the future,including the multi-factor synergetic effect on drought formation,the effect of land-atmosphere interaction on drought formation and development,the identification,monitoring and prediction of flash droughts,the transmission rules and non-uniform characteristics among various types of droughts,the effect of critical impacting period on agricultural drought development,the complexity of drought response to climate warming,and the scientific assessment of drought disaster risks on the basis of strengthening the comprehensive drought science experiment research in typical areas frequently affected by droughts.