金融发展对碳排放的影响:“促进效应”还是“抑制效应”?--基于技术进步异质性的中介效应模型

The Influence of Financial Development on Carbon Emission:"Promotion"or"Inhibition"?——A Mediating Effect Model Based on Technological Progress Heterogeneity

金融发展作为促进经济发展和技术进步的重要因素,在很大程度上影响着地区发展带来的碳排放。本文在理论分析的基础上,以技术进步的异质性特征为切入点,运用我国2003-2016年省级面板数据,构建中介效应模型,通过逐步回归的方法,实证分析金融发展通过异质的技术进步对碳排放的不同影响。结果表明:(1)我国整体层面,金融发展促进了碳排放;(2)环境技术进步和技术选择进步具有稀释效应,能够稀释金融发展对碳排放的促进效应,但在全国层面上这种稀释效应并没有完全稀释金融发展的促进效应;(3)分地区考察发现,金融发展对碳排放的影响与技术进步的间接效应均存在区域差异,中部地区金融发展能够通过技术选择进步显著降低碳排放;在东部和西部,金融发展促进了碳排放,但二者亦存在差异,东部地区环境技术进步具有稀释效应,且东部地区金融发展二次项显著为负,而西部地区技术选择进步对碳排放具有中介效应,粗放型的经济发展方式不利于地区低碳发展。

As an important factor to promote economic development and technological progress,financial development has a great impact on the carbon emission brought about by regional development.Focusing on the heterogeneity of technological progress,this paper developed an intermediary effect model by using China's provincial panel data from 2003 to 2016,and by applying the method of stepwise regression,analyzed the impacts of financial development on carbon emissions through heterogeneous technological progress.The results showed that:(1)financial development promotes carbon emissions at the overall level of China;(2)environmental technological progress and technological selection progress have the dilution effect which helps reduce the promoting effect of financial development on carbon emissions.At the national level,however,this effect does not completely neutralize the promoting effect of financial development;(3)regional differences exist in the impact of financial development on carbon emissions and indirect effects of technological progress across China.Financial development in central China can significantly reduce carbon emissions through technological progress;In the east and the west of China,however,financial development promotes the carbon emissions.They are different:environment technological progress has the dilution effect and finance development quadratic term is significantly negative in the east,while in the west technology selection progress has a mediation effect on carbon emissions and the extensive economic development mode is not conducive to regional low-carbon development.