新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情公众关注度的时空差异与影响因素--基于百度搜索指数的分析

Spatial-Temporal Distribution and Influence Mechanism of Internet Public Attention on COVID-19:A Case Study on the Baidu Searching Index

公众关注作为疫情防控与舆情治理的重要环节,其时空差异与影响因素却鲜见被讨论。因此,文章将百度搜索指数作为网络公众关注度的测量指标,采用百度人口流动大数据和疫情实时监测数据,运用空间分析、时空可视化、回归分析等方法,分析2020-01-09-03-02中国公众对"新型冠状病毒"网络关注度的省域时空差异与影响因素。研究发现:1)在空间上,公众对疫情的关注度东、西部差异较大,沿海高于内陆,且与疫情高发区吻合;在时间上,武汉"封城"前后各省份的公众关注度分布格局基本趋于一致,且"封城"后均明显高于"封城"前;春节期间关注度达到最高峰,而后随疫情周期性规律(潜伏-暴发)呈波动式下降;关注主题遵循"从早期对相关病毒的搜索到后期关注临床诊断与发展状况"的疫情发展规律。2)疫情动态数据、武汉人口流动的日动态因素与固定区位特征的经济社会发展因素会不同程度地影响受众对疫情的关注度,当疫情基本得到控制,宏观区位因素对公众关注度的影响作用开始凸显,具有持续稳定的影响;3)影响因素在疫情暴发前后2个阶段对公众关注度起着不同的影响效果。在疫情暴发初期,公众更易受疫情动态信息影响引发主动搜索行为;而在疫情暴发后期阶段,公众将注意力转移到流入各省份的武汉人口上。

The rapid spatial spread of the Corona Virus Disease(COVID-19)in China during the Spring Festival has seriously endangered human health and garnered tremendous public attention via the Internet and social media.Although public attention plays a critical role in risk surveillance and epidemic prevention,there is a lack of comprehensive discussion related to its spatial-temporal differences and influence mechanism.This study focused on Internet public attention on COVID-19 using spatial analysis,spatial-temporal visualization,regression analysis of panel data,and other methods to investigate provincial spatial-temporal differences and possible influence factors of public attention in China from January 9 to March 2,2020.In terms of data collection,the Baidu Index(BDI)was used as the measurement of public attention,disease-related data were recorded from the National Health Commission of PRC,and the population movement of Wuhan was based on geographic services of Baidu Qianxi.As per thefindings 1)The spatial distribution pattern of public attention can be described as"large differences between east and west regions,higher in coastal areas than inland areas,and consistent with the areas of epidemic distribution."In terms of temporal characteristics,there was a significant increase in the daily average of public attention in all provinces after the"Wuhan Lockdown,"and the same distribution pattern of overall levels of public attention was observed before and after the"Wuhan Lockdown."Public attention reached its peak during the Spring festival and subsequently experienced a fluctuating decline with the periodic routine(incubation-outbreak)of the development of the epidemic.The themes of public attention moved from"searching information on related viruses in the early stage",to"focusing on clinical diagnosis"and"the recent status of the development of the epidemic."2)Public attention is influenced by daily dynamic levels,including disease factor and population movement related to Wuhan,and economic/social development levels with fixed regional features.3)Different phases of the issue-attention cycle receive different levels of attention.The effect of influence mechanisms on public attention before and after the virus outbreak is significantly different.Prior to the outbreak,information disease-related factors of confirmed cases and deaths could increase the public's awareness and satisfy their fact exploration.After the outbreak,public attention was focused on population outflows from Wuhan.Compared to the first stage,the effect of regional factors on public attention increased after the outbreak,indicating that as the epidemic becomes gradually controlled,regional factor may have a sustainable and stable impact on public attention.4)Media technology indirectly affects the public's searching behavior during the epidemic.Higher amounts of available online information correspond to less searching behavior as the public becomes more informed.5)The announcement of the"Wuhan Lockdown"did not cause a massive population movement as compared to the travel rush(Chunyun)during the Spring Festival.This indicates that the role of the incubation period may have had a negative impact of population movement on public attention before the epidemic outbreak,and that the media agenda and intervention from state authorities could arouse public attention on population outflow from Wuhan after the outbreak.Based on the findings,it is suggested that the government should focus on public searching volumes and enforce timely measures to surpass the speed of epidemic spread.