考虑荷源双侧不确定性的跨区域灵活性鲁棒优化运行策略

Robust Optimized Operation Strategy for Cross-region Flexibility with Bilateral Uncertainty of Load Source

为了提升系统灵活响应不确定性的能力,及应对跨区互联线路给系统运行调度带来的挑战,构建了大规模可再生能源并网的跨区域运行调度模型。该模型考虑各区域传输的安全性,利用鲁棒理论构建随机变量的不确定集,并考虑风电与负荷的空间集群效应,通过引入不确定性的空间约束参数来弥补传统鲁棒优化的不足,从而协调系统内发电经济性与鲁棒性。同时,针对模型特征提出了一种基于滤子技术的协同进化算法对模型进行求解。研究结果表明:不确定变量的置信概率在20%~55%之间,且预测精度在置信概率较小时对系统成本的影响显著;增大空间约束参数可以获得更好的调度结果与运行方案。研究结果对在兼顾系统保守性的同时提高经济性具有一定的理论指导意义。

In order to improve the system’s ability of flexible response to uncertainty,and meet the challenges of cross regional interconnection lines to system operation scheduling,a large-scale cross regional operation scheduling model of renewable energy grid connection is constructed.In the model,the transmission security is taken into account,the robust theory is adopted to construct uncertainty aggregation,the spatial cluster effect of wind power and load is taken into consideration,uncertain space constraint parameters are introduced to make up for the shortcomings of traditional robustness,and the economy and robustness for system are coordinated.Furthermore,a coevolutionary algorithm based on filter technology is proposed to solve the model.The results show that the confidence probability is between 55%and 20%,and the influence of prediction accuracy on system cost is significant when the confidence probability is small;increasing the space constraint parameters can get better scheduling results.It has a certain theoretical significance to improving the economy while taking into account the conservatism of the system.