基于选择实验法的雾景景观价值评估分析

Analysis of the Value of Fog Landscapes Based on a Choice Experiment

对市场上不可单独交易、不存在价格的自然资源进行价值评估一直是自然资源价值评估分析的难题。文章以雾景作为不可交易自然资源的典型代表,使用实验经济学的选择实验方法获得了2124个观测值,使用多项逻辑模型评估了雾景的景观价值,结果表明:现状情景下,旅游者认为门票价格偏高,在小雾雾景属性上的支付意愿为67.55元。要评估不可交易自然资源的价值,需要找到具有市场价格的成本属性,使用选择实验客观地揭示消费者的支付意愿。要保证评估结果的有效性,在价值评估过程中需要注意3方面:一是实验问卷设计时要保证属性的独立性和属性水平值的效用平衡性;二是基于客观存在的成本属性水平值来揭示旅游者的支付意愿更有效;三是旅游者偏好的同质性与异质性的差异会影响所选择的价值评估模型的合理性,进而影响价值评估结果的有效性。

At present, the pricing of natural resources in the real world is often based only on the tradeable service flows in the market. Many service flows that have not entered the market and cannot be traded separately are ignored, despite the fact that these may have great value to human beings.Moreover, in general, focus has been placed on the current benefits of natural resources, with the longterm benefits of natural resources ignored. This pricing method not only results in overuse of already strained resources, but also means renewable resources may come close to or exceed their thresholds of collapse. The resulting environmental feedback would cause huge losses for human beings, and reduce the value of naturally provided ecosystem service flows. This paper aims to contribute to solving the problem of unreasonable pricing of natural resources or the absence of a price on natural resources, and to provide a scientific research paradigm for studying resource pricing and pricing of other products or services, as scientific and reasonable pricing can contribute to the achievement of economic efficiency and ecological efficiency of natural resource utilization. This paper uses the fog landscape as a typical example of a nontradeable natural resource. A total of 2124 observations were obtained using the experimental economics selection experiment method to evaluate the value of the fog landscape, which has no market price. Using a multinomial logit model, the results show that the consumer’s willingness to pay for a small fog scene attribute is 67.55 RMB under the status quo scenario. To evaluate the nontradeable natural resource value, a cost attribute with a market price should be found, which can be used in a choice experiment to reveal consumers’ willingness to pay objectively. To ensure the validity of the results, three aspects require attention in the value evaluation process. First, the independence of the attributes and the utility balance of the attribute level values should be ensured when designing the questionnaire. That is, in the selection of attribute variables, independence between the attribute variables must be guaranteed to avoid the occurrence of mutually related attribute variables. In addition, in designing the values of the attribute levels, it must be ensured that the utility level of the selection set, composed of different attribute level values, is the same, and the combination set of the dominant level values of different attributes cannot be presented. The second aspect that requires attention is that it is more effective to reveal the willingness to pay of tourists based on the objective existence of the cost attribute level values, that is, using design principles and the combination of attribute level values. To ensure that the utility from the combination of different attribute level values is balanced, the lowest cost attribute level value must be combined with the level value of other worse attributes, and the highest cost attribute level value must be combined with the level value of other better attributes. The current cost attribute level value combination set includes two levels of other attributes that are better and worse than the current level. Third, differences in the homogeneity and heterogeneity of tourists’ preferences will affect the rationality of the selected value assessment model and, thus, affect the validity of the value assessment results.