国家制度形态的发育程度与土地改革——对独立后非洲国家的实证分析

State History and Land Reform:An Empirical Analysis of Post-independence African States

关于土地产权的制度安排是影响到国家发展的根本性问题。土地改革是第二次世界大战后新生的发展中国家进行国家建设的一条重要路径。但为何有的国家土地改革能够成功,有的国家以失败告终?文章尝试用"国家制度形态的发育程度—国家能力—土地改革"的因果框架来解答这个问题。通过创建一个涵盖所有非洲国家独立至今的土地改革原创数据集,文章对国家制度形态的发育程度和土地改革的关系进行了统计分析。研究发现,国家制度形态的发育程度较强的非洲国家更可能实现传统土地制度的变革,而国家制度形态的发育程度较弱的非洲国家,对传统土地制度的变革大多以失败告终。其中的因果逻辑在于:土地改革成败与国家能力密切相关,而国家制度形态的发育程度较强的非洲国家更可能在独立后获得更强的国家能力,从而实现对传统土地制度的变革。

Land reform is an important pathway of state-building in the developing world after World War II, especially in Africa. However, why did some land reform succeed while others failed? To explore the causes of land reform in developing countries, this paper constructs a "state history-state capacity-land reform" theoretical framework. Using an original data which covers all land reform events in 48 African states from 1950 to 2016, this paper provides the first large-N analysis of the relationship between state history and land reform. It finds that African countries with stronger state history are more likely to change their traditional land institutions, because stronger state history brings stronger state capacity which in turn promotes land reform.