中国与东盟商品贸易的合作与成长空间--基于竞争性与互补性数据的分析

Cooperation and Growth Space between China and ASEAN Commodity Trade:An Analysis Based on Competitive and Complementary Data

运用出口相似性指数、贸易相似度指数、Lafay指数、市场提供指数与增加值分解方法,分析中国与东盟商品贸易的竞争性与互补性、比较优势差异与市场提供能力,进而考察中国与东盟商品贸易的合作与成长空间是否在面临缩窄。分析结果表明,中国与东盟在低技术产品的贸易合作空间依旧在扩大,而在中高技术产品上呈现出更强的竞合一体化状态,竞争性与合作性在不同的领域都有所加强。中国应采取直接投资结构差异化、"一带一路"框架下的产业合作、活跃企业创新投融资活动等措施应对中高技术领域的竞合一体化状态,在区域经济合作机制中继续推动低技术产品贸易,并协助东盟改善产业环境,推动进一步的产业分工。

This paper uses the Export Similarity Index,the Trade Similarity Index,the Lafay Index,the Market Supply Index and value-added decomposition method to analyze the competitiveness and complementarity of China-ASEAN commodity trade,the difference in comparative advantage,and the capacity of market supply,and then to exam whether the space for cooperation and growth of China-ASEAN merchandise trade is narrowing down.The results show that the trade cooperation space between China and ASEAN is still expanding in low-tech products.However,there is a stronger integration of competition and cooperation in the middle and high-tech products.Competition and cooperation are strengthened in different fields.China should implement direct investment structure differentiation,develop industrial cooperation under the Belt and Road framework,activate enterprise investment and financing activities to cope with the integration of competition and cooperation in the middle and high technology fields,and continue to promote the trade of low-tech products in regional economic cooperation mechanisms.Furthermore,it is important to assist ASEAN to improve the industrial environment to promote further industrial division of labor as well.