社会化照料会替代家庭照料吗?--基于CLHLS纵向数据的实证分析

Can Social Care Services Substitute for the Family Cares for the Elders?An Empirical Analysis Based on CLHLS Longitudinal Data

本文基于中国老年人健康长寿影响因素调查(CLHLS)2008-2014年纵向调查数据重点探究社会化照料对家庭照料的影响。结果显示,随着时间的推移,家庭投入的照料时间呈下降趋势;且随着老年群体年龄增长、健康状况下降,家庭照料时间增加。通过多层线性模型分析发现,社会化照料可以在一定程度上减少家庭照料时间,但健康状况作为有效的调节变量,随着老年人失能程度的加深,其影响作用减弱,最终不能代替家庭照料。文章认为,社会化照料与家庭照料是平衡协调的动态过程,应在大力发展社会养老服务的同时支持家庭提供照料服务。

Based on the data of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)2008-2014,this paper focuses on the influence of formal social care services on the time input of the family care.The results show that as time goes by,the time spent on family cares for the elders is decreasing,while the time input of the family cares increase with the elder’s increasing age and the deterioration of the elder’s health status.The multi-level linear model shows that the social care services indeed reduces the time input of the family cares to a certain extent,but the effect is obviously moderated by health status of the elders,and the substitution of social services for family care can be increasingly moderated till a extent with totally no substitution with the increasing disability of the elders.It means that the social care services for the elder need coordinate dynamically with the family cares and the government should provide increasingly supports for the provision of family cares while keep improving the social care services for the elders in the same time.