我国是否存在生肖偏好--基于总和生育率的实证分析

Is There A Preference for Chinese Zodiac In the Birth of Children?——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Total Fertility Rate

是否存在生肖偏好的问题是生育研究中的一个重要方面,现有的这方面的实证研究还存在不足之处。分析发现,总和生育率是用于判断是否存在生肖偏好的最佳指标,具体的实证分析方法有两种:一是基于总和生育率的生育堆积指数,逐年分析是否存在生肖偏好导致的生育堆积或回避现象;二是按生肖的惠普尔指数,从长周期来分析各生肖的生育堆积状况。分析1950-2017年我国总和生育率数据发现,从总体上来看,我国人口基本上不存在明显的因生肖偏好而发生的生育堆积或回避现象。

The Zodiac preferences in the birth of children is a interesting cultural aspect of the fertility research.The existing researches have various defects in this regard and the analysis of the total fertility rate can be a better way to study the zodiac preferences in the birth of children by two approaches,one is the birth accumulation index which can find where there is Chinese zodiac preference each year by finding the years’birth accumulation or birth avoidance.Another way is to construct Whipple’s Index of the Chinese zodiac and test whether there is any fertility accumulation on the each of 12 Chinese zodiac in a long time.The analysis of the TFR data 1950-2017 show that there is no obvious fertility accumulation due to the preference of Chinese zodiac in general.