基于删失数据的雷弹装备电子件贮存寿命估计方法

Storage Life Estimation Method for Electronic Components of Torpedo and Missile Equipment Based on Censored Data

针对雷弹装备“长期贮存,一次使用”的特点,分析了现有装备难以根据试验和使用维护数据开展贮存寿命估计的实际情况。基于贮存期间的装备检测数据,开展了删失数据下的雷弹装备电子件贮存寿命估计研究,采用极大似然思想建立了电子件寿命评估模型,给出了估计方法。设计了仿真试验对该估计方法进行验证。结果表明,文中所提估计方法能够在较高的精度范围内估计电子件的贮存寿命,检测次数、检测时间间隔和样本数量等参数的选取会对评估结果的精度造成影响。该寿命估计方法能够根据使用部队日常维护保养中的检测数据开展装备电子件寿命估计,为后续开展贮存效果评估,装备延寿、定寿等工作提供参考。

For the‘long-term-storage and one-shot’torpedo and missile equipment,the difficulty in estimating the storage life based on test and maintenance data is analyzed.Based on the equipment test data during the storage period,the research on the storage life estimation of the electronic components of torpedo and missile equipment in the censored data condition is carried out,in which a storage life assessment model of the electronic components is established using the maximum likelihood theory,and a storage life estimation method is given.Simulation experiment is designed to verify the assessment model.The results show that the storage life estimation method can estimate the storage life and reliability of the electronic components in a high precision range,and the sample size,the detection number and the detection time interval influence the estimation accuracy.This storage life estimation method can estimate the storage life of the equipment’s electronic components based on the detection data in daily maintenance,and provide support for the follow-up work in reliability.