应对新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)肺炎的政府干预对医院流行性感冒检测阳性率的影响

Effect of government interventions against COVID-19 pneumonia on positive rate of influenza detected in hospital

目的研究在新型冠状病毒COVID-19疫情期间,政府采取的干预措施对医院检测的流行性感冒(简称流感)阳性率的影响,为制定流感预防措施提供依据,也为间接评价新型冠状病毒的预防效果提供参考。方法回顾性收集广州市第一人民医院总院2018—2020年年廿三至正月十五期间的流感抗原检测数据,对政府干预前后的流感抗原检测阳性率进行分析比较。结果在春节前后,2018年和2019年的流感检测阳性率总体上维持稳定。其中,2018年春节前后,流感阳性率在15.6%~46.5%范围内波动,2019年春节前后,流感阳性率在11.9%~30.4%范围内波动。2020年同期的流感阳性率变化曲线与前两年不同,在正月初四前曲线变化较为稳定,维持在20.0%~44.1%范围内。在正月初四后曲线呈现显著下降趋势,在正月十二和正月十五,流感检测阳性率变为0。进一步的分析表明,政府干预对流感阳性率的影响无性别差异,对5~64岁人群效果最佳。结论当前针对新型冠状病毒COVID-19的政府干预措施能显著降低流感阳性率,预防流感的发生,也为预防同样以呼吸道传播为主的新型冠状病毒的传播提供了间接证据。

Objective The aim of the study was to study the effect of government interventions on the positive rate of influenza detected in Guangzhou First People’s Hospital during the outbreak of COVID-19,and to provide a basis to develop prevention measures against influenza and a reference for the indirect evaluation of the preventive effect of COVID-19.Methods Influenza antigen detection data of Guangzhou First People’s Hospital were collected retrospectively from 23 rd of the 12 th lunar month to 15 th of the 1 st lunar month in 2018-2020,and the positive rates of influenza antigen detection before and after the government intervention were analyzed and compared. Results The positive rates of influenza were generally stable in 2018 and 2019 before and after the Spring Festival,where the positive rate fluctuated in the range of15. 6% ~ 46. 5% in 2018,and the positive rate fluctuates in the range of 11. 9% ~ 30. 4% in 2019. The temporal change of the positive rate in 2020 was different from that of the previous two years. The positive rate curve was relatively stable before the fourth day of the first lunar month,maintaining a range of 20. 0% ~ 44. 1% in 2020. After the fourth day of the first lunar month,the curve showed a significant downward trend. On the 12 th and 15 th day of the first lunar month,the positive rate of influenza became 0. Furthermore,the effect of government intervention on the positive rate of influenza showed no gender difference,and the effect was significant for people aged 5 ~ 64 years. Conclusion The current government intervention measures against COVID-19 could significantly reduce the positive rate of influenza,prevent the occurrence of influenza,and provide indirect evidence for the prevention of the spread of COVID-19,which was also mainly spread by respiratory tract.