“一带一路”货物贸易网络结构动态变化及其影响机制

Research on the Dynamic Change of Goods Trade Network Structure and Its Impact Mechanism of Countries along the Belt and Road

随着"一带一路"建设的不断推进,"一带一路"沿线国家贸易网络结构是否发生了显著变化?各国之间的贸易关系是否日趋复杂?又呈现出怎样的彼此交织、相互依存的特征?文章结合时态指数随机图模型(TERGM)与可分离的时态指数随机图模型(STERGM),使用动态网络分析方法对"一带一路"沿线国家货物贸易网络结构动态变化及其影响机制进行研究。研究发现:(1)本文构建的"一带一路"货物贸易动态网络TERGM和STERGM方法克服了传统ERGM方法局限于静态分析的缺点,很好地刻画了"一带一路"沿线国家货物贸易网络结构的变动特征及其影响机制。(2)"一带一路"沿线国家货物贸易网络拓扑结构具有一定的异质性,贸易网络中存在"富人俱乐部"现象,这一现象与网络中存在的等级效应有关,且这种等级效应有逐渐增强的趋势。(3)经济发展水平是影响贸易关系形成和维持的重要因素,高经济发展水平国家间具有更强的贸易倾向,但在"一带一路"倡议提出后,这种倾向有所减弱,低经济发展水平国家间发展贸易关系的几率有所提升。文章拓展了"一带一路"沿线国家货物贸易网络结构动态变化的相关研究,并为我国深入推进"一带一路"建设,消除"一带一路"沿线国家间的潜在贸易摩擦提供了启示。

With the continuous progress of regional economic integration,the trade network of countries along the Belt and Road is changing constantly.The trade relationships between countries are becoming more and more complicated,intertwined and interdependent.However,most previous literature on the trade network of countries along the Belt and Road tends to focus on the static descriptions of network topology features,and there is a lack of explanation on the dynamic change and its mechanism.This paper tries to explain the dynamic change of goods trade network structure and its impact mechanism of countries along the Belt and Road.We build Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model(TERGM)and Separable Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model(STERGM),using Dynamic Network Analysis to study the change of goods trade network structure and its impact mechanism of countries along the Belt and Road.We find out that the dynamic network models TERGM and STERGM overcome the shortcomings of traditional ERGM method,which is limited to static analysis,and can well capture the impact mechanism of the change of goods trade network structure;the structure of network has a certain heterogeneity,and there is a“rich club”phenomenon in the network.This phenomenon is related to the increasing hierarchical effect in the network;the forming and maintaining of the trade relationships are significantly affected by the countries’economy.Countries with high economic development have stronger tendency to trade,but after the implementation of the Belt and Road strategy,this tendency has weakened,and the probability for countries with low economic development to expand trade relations has increased.The conclusion of this paper indicates that China should complement the industries with countries along the Belt and Road to make them develop comparative advantages,coordinate trade competition among countries,and establish and maintain multilateral and multilevel regional partnerships.The academic value of this paper could be concluded in two aspects:In research content,this paper analyzes the dynamic change of goods trade network structure and its impact mechanism of countries along the Belt and Road,and discusses the positive role of the Belt and Road strategy on promoting trade relations between countries,combined with challenges.It is of great realistic significance for continuing to promote the Belt and Road strategy,balancing the interests of trade among countries and eliminating the possible trade frictions between China and other countries in the future.In research methods,this paper builds TERGM and STERGM including endogenous and exogenous factors to study the change of goods trade network structure of countries along the Belt and Road and discuss its impact mechanism.The Dynamic Network Analysis method in this paper provides a new research idea for analyzing the change of goods trade network structure of countries along the Belt and Road.