需求冲击对产能配置的非对称与非线性作用机制研究

Asymmetric and Nonlinear Mechanism of Demand Shocks on Capacity Allocation

当下产能过剩问题依然严峻,产能配置的市场机制研究是促进市场与政策有机结合推动经济高质量发展的关键。基于2003-2017年我国钢铁行业面板数据,构建产能利用与产能配置双方程,实证分析了需求冲击对产能配置影响的不同作用机制。首先,将需求冲击划分为扩张和下滑时发现需求扩张与需求下滑的影响是非对称的。其次,通过门限模型将需求冲击划分为三个阶段发现需求扩张对产能配置水平和产能利用率的影响呈非线性特征。结果表明市场需求的快速演变是导致产能过剩的重要成因,高速扩张的市场需求更易引发产能过度进入,而仅通过市场自身调节机制无法引导产能退出。因此,在治理及预防产能过剩过程中应避免单一的调控政策,需结合需求冲击的不同作用机制采用不同策略应对产能过剩问题。

At present,the problem of overcapacity is still serious.The research on market mechanism of capacity allocation is the key to promote the organic combination of market and policy to promote high-quality economic development.Based on the panel data of China’s iron and steel industry from 2003 to 2017,this paper constructs a double equation of capacity utilization and capacity allocation,and empirically analyzes the different mechanisms of the impact of demand shocks on capacity allocation.Firstly,when the demand shock is divided into expansion and decline,it is found that the impact of demand expansion and demand decline is asymmetric.Secondly,the threshold model is used to divide the demand shock into three stages.It is found that the impact of demand expansion on capacity allocation level and capacity utilization is nonlinear.The results show that the rapid evolution of market demand is an important cause of overcapacity.The high-speed expansion of market demand is more likely to cause excessive capacity entry,but through the market regulation mechanism can not guide capacity exit.Therefore,in the process of governance and prevention of overcapacity,we should avoid a single regulatory policy,and develop different strategies to deal with the problem of overcapacity in combination with different mechanisms of demand shocks.