制造业与服务业协调发展对制造业升级的影响——基于门限回归模型的分析

The impact of coordinated development of manufacturing industry and service industry on the upgrading of manufacturing industry——Analysis Based on Threshold Regression Model

门限回归的核心思想在于捕获门限变量可能发生跳跃的临界点或临界区域,在该点或区域处模型系数改变,这更能解释现实中的某些经济现象。本文应用耦合协调度模型、DEA-Malmquist指数测算制造业与服务业耦合协调度及制造业全要素生产率,运用门限回归模型分析制造业与服务业协调发展水平对制造业升级的非线性影响。研究发现:制造业与服务业协调发展对制造业升级有显著的正向促进作用,但在不同门限变量下对制造业升级效果存在差异,其中产业规模、技术创新存在单一门限值,而综合发展水平存在双重门限值。研究创新及价值在于:通过构建制造业与服务业协调发展评价指标体系,探究了制造业与服务业协调发展对制造业升级的阈值效应,为促进区域间产业协调发展及产业优化升级提供决策参考。

The core idea of threshold regression is to capture the critical point or region where threshold variables may jump.The change of model coefficients at that point or region can better explain some economic phenomena in reality.In this paper,the coupling coordination degree model and DEA-Malmquist index are used to calculate the coupling coordination degree and total factor productivity of manufacturing industry.The threshold regression model is used to analyze the non-linear impact of the coordinated development level of manufacturing industry and service industry on the upgrading of manufacturing industry.The study finds that the coordinated development of manufacturing and service industries has a significant positive effect on the upgrading of manufacturing industry,but there are differences in the upgrading effect of manufacturing industry under different threshold variables.Among them,there is a single threshold value for industrial scale and technological innovation,while there is a double threshold value for the comprehensive development level.Research innovation and value lie in:through building the evaluation index system of coordinated development of manufacturing and service industries,this paper explores the threshold effect of coordinated development of manufacturing and service industries on manufacturing upgrading,and provides decision-making reference for promoting coordinated development of inter-regional industries and industrial optimization and upgrading.