人口老龄化、资本收益与生育政策调整

Population Aging,Capital Gains,and Birth Policy Adjustments

人口老龄化下资本收益的趋势性特征关乎投资者对未来中国投资环境的研判、货币政策调控的效果和养老制度改革的成败。在两个百年目标的关键期,中国资本收益会步入下行通道吗?为回答这一科学问题,建立一个能够考察老龄化对历年资本收益影响的动态优化框架,根据现实可行参数,进行数值模拟研究后发现,在生育政策不变下2050年前中国资本收益将步入下行通道。这就意味着资本存在外流的风险,中国经济的资本引擎可能动力不足;资本收益下降,货币政策调控宏观经济的作用降低;积累制养老制度改革并非是万能的,个人养老金面临无法升值保险的风险。进一步模拟发现,生育政策调整不仅提高了未来的资本收益,还改变了2035年以后资本收益下降的趋势性特征。因此,当前需进一步放松生育管控,出台生育支持性政策,提高当前生育水平;生育政策不仅是一项重要的人口政策,还可能是一项重要的资本政策,甚至科技政策。

The characteristics of capital gains tendencies under population aging are related to investors’judgment on China’s future investment environment,the effects of monetary policy regulation,and the success of the pension system reform.Will China’s capital gains enter into a downward spiral during the critical period for the achievement of the bicentennial goals?To answer this question,it is necessary to establish a dynamic optimization framework to examine the impact of aging on capital returns over the years.Based on realistic and feasible parameters,a numerical simulation study has found that if the current birth policy remains unchanged,China’s capital gains will enter into a downward spiral before 2050.This means that there is a risk of capital outflow,and the capital engine of the Chinese economy may lose its steam;capital gains may fall,and the role of monetary policy in regulating the macroeconomic condition could be weakened;an accumulation-based pension system reform will not serve all purposes,and personal pensions face the risk of failing to appreciate or maintain their value.A further simulated study has found that the adjustment of birth policy would not only improve future capital gains but also change the tendency characteristics of capital gains to fall after 2035.At present,it is necessary to further relax birth control,introduce a birth support policy,and improve the current birth level;birth policy is not only an important population policy but also an important capital policy,and even a science and technology policy.