中亚一体化的架构变化与发展前景

Framework Changes and Development Prospects of Central Asian Integration

次地区一体化的发展受到其所在地区的重要影响。次地区国家、地区国家和地区外国家是一体化进程中的主要行为体。次地区一体化在理论上具有"求生存"和"求发展"两种目标和逻辑。在"求发展"逻辑下,次地区一体化在水平上领先于地区一体化,可以通过自身发展维持生存并引领地区一体化;在"求生存"逻辑下,次地区一体化在水平上落后于地区一体化,为防止被地区一体化"收编",可以采取团结次地区国家、引入新的地区国家或借助地区外国家的力量等方式寻求生存。中国成为欧亚地区国家的身份变化,改变了中亚一体化的外部架构。中亚国家开展团结合作并借助新地区国家(中国)和地区外国家的力量使中亚次地区一体化获得发展空间。中亚一体化的发展前景取决于中亚国家对"求生存"逻辑的运用和对具体问题的解决。

The development of sub-regional integration is offected deeply by the region situation.Sub-regional countries,regional countries and extraterritorial countries serve as the main players in the integration process.Theoretically,sub-regional integration follows two goals and logics of"seeking survival"and"pursing development".Under the logic of"pursuing development",sub-regional integration runs ahead of regional integration from the perspective of maturity,and can maintain survival and set the pace for regional integration through sub-regional development.Under the logic of"seeking survival",sub-regional integration is outpaced by regional integration from the perspective of maturity.In order to avoid"being merged"by regional integration,it is advised to seek survival by uniting sub-regional countries,introducing new regional countries or leveraging the power of extraterritorial countries.While China become an Eurasian Countries,the external framework of Central Asian integration is reversed.Central Asian countries maintain solidarity and carry out cooperation,and make the best of the strengths of new regional country(i.e.,China)and extraterritorial countries to seize the room for development of sub-regional integration in Central Asia.The development prospects of Central Asian integration depends on the logic application of"seeking survival"and the solutions to specific problems in Central Asian countries.