基于文献计量学的重大新发传染病影像相关文献的作用和趋势预测研究

Research of role and trend prediction of image-related papers of major emerging infectious diseases based on bibliometrics.

目的采用文献计量学方法和时间序列分析方法对SARS和COVID-19影像相关文献发表情况进行分析和预测,从文献角度分析重大新发传染病中影像学的作用及趋势。方法通过在CNKI、中华医学期刊网和PubMed 3个数据库中系统检索,对2003年1月1日至2020年3月22日SARS和2019年12月1日至2020年3月22日COVID-19发表的影像相关文献数量、语种、国别、期刊分布及文献发表类型进行分析,并采用时间序列分析方法中ARIMA模型对COVID-19的文献发表数量进行预测。结果2003年1月1日至2020年3月22日,累计收录SARS影像相关文献451篇。2019年12月1日至2020年3月22日,3个数据库中共计收录COVID-19影像相关文献251篇。在2次疫情发生后的前3个月内,COVID-19影像相关文献占所有相关发表文献的2.35%,显著高于SARS同期相关文献占比(0.41%)。目前COVID-19已发表文献中,SCI文献占46.2%(116/251),显著高于SARS影像相关的SCI文献比例[(21.5%(97/451)]。Radiology、《中华放射学杂志》是2种重大新发传染病影像相关文献发表量最多期刊。COVID-19影像相关文献以CT研究为主导,占所有文献的61.8%,是同期胸片文献研究数量的40倍。依据预测模型,预计COVID-19影像相关文献数量可能在4月份达到高峰,总发表数量约为418篇,主题将逐渐从影像诊断向预后和随访方面转变。结论在重大新发传染病的应对中,影像研究扮演越来越重要角色,其中CT应用及研究意识显著提升。

Objective To analyze and predict the publication of imaging papers related to SARS and COVID 19 by using bibliometrics and time series analysis,and to analyze the role and trend of imaging in major emerging infectious diseases from the perspective of literatures.Methods CNKI,zhoncj.com and PubMed were systematically searched.The number,language,country,journal distribution and publication type of image-related studies published by COVID-19 from December 1,2019 to March 22,2020 and SARS from January 1,2003 to March 22,2020 were analyzed.The ARIMA model of time series analysis was performed to predict the publication number of COVID-19.Results From January 1,2003 to March 22,2020,a total of 451 papers related to SARS image were identified.From December 1,2019 to March 22,2020,a total of 251 COVID-19 imaging papers were included in the three databases.During the first 3 months of the two outbreaks,COVID-19 image-related papers accounted for 2.35%of all published papers,significantly higher than that of SARS(0.41%).At present,46.2%(116/251)of COVID-19 studies have been published on SCI,significantly higher than the proportion of SARS image-related SCI papers[(21.5%(97/451)].Radiology and Chinese Journal of Radiology were first two journals which the most studies were published on.Most of the COVID-19 studies were concerned on CT,accounting for 61.8%,which was 40 times the number of chest radiograph studies.According to the ARIMA predicted model,it was suggested that the number of COVID-19 imaging papers may reach the peak in April,with the total number of published studies of 418.The theme of studies will gradually change from imaging diagnosis to prognosis and follow-up.Conclusion Imaging research plays an increasingly important role in the response to major emerging infectious diseases.The awareness of application and research of CT have been significantly enhanced.