摘要
以网络搜索关键词的搜索量作为媒体效应的量化指标,建立考虑媒体效应的VAR模型研究房地产价格的波动趋势,并利用西安市2011年1月-2017年12月的数据进行验证.研究结果发现:媒体效应对房地产价格的影响存在两期的最优滞后效应;媒体效应与房地产价格之间具有长期稳定的协整关系;考虑媒体效应的VAR模型能够较好的分析媒体效应与房地产价格之间的动态关系,房地产价格受以下网络搜索关键词的正向影响,其影响程度由大到小依次为:行政类、房地产类、其他类、金融类、财政类关键词,而土地类关键词的影响为负.最后,将站在政府、相关部门和房地产开发商的角度,提出相关建议.
In this paper,the search volume of web search keywords is used as a quantitative indicator of media effect,and a VAR model considering media effects is established to study the fluctuation trend of real estate prices,and the data of Xi’an from January 2011 to December 2017 is used for verification.The research results show that there are two optimal lag effects of media effect on real estate price;the long-term stable cointegration relationship between media effect and real estate price;VAR model considering media effect can better analyze media effect and real estate The dynamic relationship between prices,real estate prices are positively affected by the following network search keywords,the degree of influence from large to small:administrative,real estate,other,financial,financial keywords,and land The impact of the keyword is negative.Finally,this article will present relevant suggestions from the perspective of the government,relevant departments and real estate developers.
作者
张新生
迟依涵
兰峰
ZHANG Xin-sheng;CHI Yi-han;LAN Feng(School of Management,Xi5an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an 710055,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2020年第10期64-72,共9页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金“基于城市星型网络的商品房住房价格时空溢出机理研究”(71573201)。
