市场不确定性、产业扶贫项目参与对农户贫困脆弱性的影响

Market Uncertainty,Participation in Industrialization Project for Poverty Alleviation and Farmers’Poverty Vulnerability

探讨市场不确定性、产业扶贫项目参与对农户减贫效果的影响机制,对于管控产业扶贫项目实施风险、提高产业扶贫绩效具有重要现实意义。利用陕西省秦巴山区776户农户调研数据,借助两阶段最小二乘法和内生转换回归模型实证研究了市场不确定性、产业扶贫项目参与对农户贫困脆弱性的影响,并在反事实假设的基础上估计了农户参与产业扶贫项目对贫困脆弱性的平均处理效应。实证结果表明:农户产业扶贫项目参与能有效缓解贫困脆弱性,相较于未参与农户,参与农户贫困脆弱性显著降低26.22%。进一步研究表明,市场不确定性显著抑制农户产业扶贫参与,且加深了农户贫困脆弱性。基于此,从合理选择产业扶贫项目、搭建有效利益联结机制、优化农业保险体系等方面得出针对性的政策启示。

The influence mechanism and effect of market uncertainty on the participation in industrialization projects for poverty alleviation is of great significance for the government to formulate the risk management policy of industry for poverty alleviation and improve the performance of industrialization for poverty alleviation in China.Based on the survey data of 776 households in Qinba Mountain Area of Shaanxi Province,this paper empirically examines market uncertainty and participation in industrial project for poverty alleviation by using the combination of two-stage least squares method and endogenous switching regression model,where we use the bias and heterogeneity of sample selection tactics.Based on counterfactual assumptions,the average treatment effect of market uncertainty and participation in project for poverty alleviation on economic vulnerability is estimated.The empirical results show that:market uncertainty will significantly increase farmers’economic vulnerability;market uncertainty has significantly negative impact on farmers’participation in project for poverty alleviation.This paper comprised with some findings that,the higher the market uncertainty,the lower the probability that farmers will participate in project for poverty alleviation;the participation of poverty alleviation has significantly negative impact on the economic vulnerability of famers.Participating in project for poverty alleviation will help reduce the probability of future poverty.Participation in project for poverty alleviation can significantly reduce the poverty vulnerability of farmers by 26.22%compared with non-participating farmers.Based on this,specific policy enlightenments are drawn from the aspects of reasonable selection of industrial projects for poverty alleviation,establishment of effective interest linkage mechanisms,and optimization of agricultural insurance systems.