中国省会城市人口密度对人才集聚的影响研究

Studies on the Influence of Population Density of China’s Provincial Capital Cities on High Skill Labors Agglomeration

随着城市人口规模的扩大和人口密度的提高,城市的经济集聚效应和拥挤效应日益增大。虽然新增人才与普通劳动力产生的拥挤效应相同,但人才具有更高的人力资本和劳动生产率,对城市经济长远发展和在未来城市体系中的位置具有决定性作用,吸引人才集聚成为城市竞争的新焦点。除了拥挤效应外,城市人口密度提升有利于城市内部的知识溢出和工资增长,满足人才的发展需求和预期收入需求,从而促进人才向城市集聚。考虑直辖市和省会城市是全国和区域人口集聚的中心,存在着经济集聚效应和拥挤效应,以中国2003年至2015年30个省会城市(含直辖市)为样本进行实证检验。静态和动态面板数据模型实证结果均表明城市人口密度对人才集聚具有显著的正向促进作用,这意味着当前中国主要城市的经济集聚效应大于拥挤效应,城市的人口密度并未过度稠密,进一步提高城市人口密度有利于人才向城市流动集聚。考虑人才对城市的知识溢出和工资比拥挤效应更加敏感,不同的知识溢出和工资水平条件下,城市人口密度对人才集聚存在着影响差异,门限面板数据模型实证结果显示存在三个区制,分别对应于城市发展的起飞、爬坡和成熟三个阶段,受城市经济集聚效应与拥挤效应相对动态变化的影响,城市人口密度对人才聚集的正向影响效果经历了由大变小再变大的过程,这凸显了积极治理城市拥挤效应的重要性,尤其是对处于爬坡发展阶段的大多数城市来说,及早采取加大公共交通基础设施建设、落实房住不炒政策、优化城市功能分区等有效措施十分重要。

With the expansion of urban population scale and the increase of population density,the econom⁃ic agglomeration effect and crowding effect of the city were increasing.Although the crowding effect of was the same for everyone,high skilled labors had higher human capital and labor productivity than other la⁃bors,which played a decisive role in the long-term development of urban economy,so cities competed for attracting high skilled labors.In addition to the crowding effect,the higher urban population density was conducive to knowledge spillover and wage growth,which satisfied the development and expected income demand of high skilled labors.Considering that provincial capital cities were the centers regional popula⁃tion agglomeration,we took provincial capital cities data from 2003 to 2015 as sample.The empirical re⁃sults of both static and dynamic panel data models showed that urban population density had a significant positive role in promoting high skill labors agglomeration,which meant that the economic agglomeration ef⁃fect of major cities in China was greater than the crowding effect,and the urban population density was not too dense.Further improving the urban population density was conducive to the high skill labors agglomera⁃tion.Because high skill labors were more sensitive to urban knowledge spillover and wage than crowding ef⁃fect,under different knowledge spillover and wage level conditions,urban population density had different influence on high skill labors agglomeration.The empirical results of threshold panel data model showed that there were three regimes,which were corresponding to the three stages of urban development,namely,take-off,climbing and maturity.Influenced by the relative dynamic change of urban economic agglomera⁃tion effect and crowding effect,the positive effect of urban population density on high skill labors aggrega⁃tion had gone through the process from big to small and then to big,which highlighted the importance of managing urban crowding effect,such as construction of public transport infrastructure,implement the hous⁃ing policy and optimization urban functions,especially for most cities in the stage of climbing development.