新冠疫情应急管理中的管制政策与疫情分布的时空关系--以2020年春节期间湖北省各地区应对策略为例

Spatial-Temporal Relationship between Control Policies and COVID-19 Epidemic Distribution in Emergency Management:A Case Study of Response Strategies of Municipalities in Hubei Province during the Spring Festival 2020

中国各地各级政府根据本地疫情严重程度,采取了一系列的应急管理举措,其中就包括对交通运输、活动场所、特定人员的管制政策。本文主旨是以时空为切入点,从理论和实证层面论证这些管制政策与疫情的关系。本文收集了以春节期间为主要时段的湖北省13个地级市(州)相互之间的空间距离、三类管制政策、确诊病例等数据。根据空间面板回归模型结果,本文讨论了三类管制政策与疫情分布的时空关系。分析结果显示:三类政策中,交通管制对疫情发展的影响最显著,其他两种政策需要进一步探讨;此外,还需要研究并识别尚未认识到的存在时空效应的外在因素。

In the beginning of 2020, a global emerging pneumonia epidemic broke out from Wuhan, Hubei province. According to severities, Chinese government in different levels adopted a lot of emergency management measures, including traffic control, field control, and specific crowd control policies. From the perspective of time and space, the aim of this paper is demonstrating the relationship between these control policies and epidemic distribution theoretically and empirically.We collected data include the space distance, three types of control policies, and confirmed cases of 13 municipalities of Hubei Province, and the data collection period covered the Spring Festival mainly. According to the results of spatial panel regression model, this paper discusses the spatial and temporal relationship between three types of control policies and epidemic distribution. The analysis results show that traffic control has the most significant influence, and the other two policies need to be further discussed. In addition, it is necessary to study and identify the unrecognized external factors with space-time effect in the future.