宁夏高速公路大风灾害风险评价

Risk Assessment of Gale Disaster on Expressways in Ningxia Province

利用气象观测数据、交通数据和经济社会数据,选取不同等级的大风日数、车流量、道路密度、地形高度、河网密度、桥涵个数、桥涵密度、植被覆盖度等14个评价指标,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性三方面建立高速公路大风灾害评估模型,使用模糊综合评价法和层次分析法计算各因子权重,开展宁夏高速公路大风灾害风险评价。结果表明:宁夏高速公路大风灾害风险石嘴山市北部和吴忠市南部高、区内中北部和南部低。其中,京藏高速石嘴山市北段为高风险;京藏高速石嘴山市中段、中卫市南段及福银高速吴忠市段为次高风险;其他路段为中等到较低风险。风险评价结果与实际高速公路大风灾害的发生有较好的一致性。

Based on the database collected from meteorology observations,transportation system and social economy including 14 evaluation indicators such as gale days with different grades,traffic flow,road density,topographic height,river network density,number of bridge and culvert,bridge and culvert density,vegetation coverage,an expressway gale disaster assessing model was built up to assess the risk of gale disaster along the expressways in Ningxia Province from three aspects including risk of disaster-causing factors,environment sensitivity to gale disaster and vulnerability of gale disaster-bearing body.Then the weight of each influencing indicator was calculated by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process in order to conduct evaluation of gale disaster risk on expressways in Ningxia.The results indicate that the higher risk areas of gale disaster along expressways in Ningxia Province were mainly located in north section of Shizuishan and south section of Wuzhong,while the risk was lower in the north central and southern part in Ningxia Province.The northern parts of Shizuishan section of G6(Beijing-Tibet expressway)suffered the high risk of gale disaster,followed by the middle part of Shizuishan section of G6,southern part of Zhongwei plus Wuzhong section of Fuzhou-Yinchuan expressway,while other sections bored medium and low risk of gale disaster.The results of risk assessment were in good agreement with the actual occurrence of gale disasters on expressways.