岩油革命与国际原油市场供给新格局

Shale revolution and new pattern of international crude oil supply

2009年以来,诞生于美国的岩油革命给国际原油市场带来了结构性变化,短短10年,美国从世界上最大的原油进口国变为最大的石油生产国,并实现原油独立。欧佩克的市场控制能力受到冲击,促使欧佩克演化为控制力更强几乎涵盖所有主要原油出口国的“欧佩克+”“欧佩克+”较好地应对了美国页岩油的巨大冲击。国际原油价格告别高油价时代,下行向页岩油生产成本靠拢。美国与“欧佩克+”的关系从竞争转变为既竞争也合作,油价高于页岩油成本时是竞争关系,油价低于页岩油成本则迅速开展合作。

Since 2009,the shale revolution born in the United States has brought structural changes to the international crude oil market.In just 10 years,the United States has changed from the world's largest crude oil importer to the largest oil producer and achieved crude oil independence.OPEC's market control ability has been impacted,which makes OPEC evolve into a“OPEC+”with stronger control,covering almost all major crude oil exporting countries.The“OPEC+”has better responded to the huge impact of shale oil in the United States.The international crude oil price bid farewell to the era of high oil price and moved down to shale oil production cost.The relationship between the United States and“OPEC+”has changed from competition to both competition and cooperation.When the oil price is higher than the cost of shale oil,it is a competitive relationship.When the oil price is lower than the cost of shale oil,it is a rapid cooperation.