重庆市人口半城镇化空间分布及影响因素

Spatial Distribution and Influencing Factors of Population Semi-Urbanization in Chongqing

在GIS技术支持下,采用趋势分析、空间自相关分析和PCA-GWR模型等方法,定量分析重庆市人口半城镇化的时序特征、空间差异和空间关联特征,并揭示其影响因素及空间分异性。结果表明:(1)重庆市人口半城镇化分为快速增长阶段和波动降低阶段,内部差异较大,形成了主城和渝西片区较高、渝东南和渝东北片区较低的二元空间结构,前者表现为“高中心—低外围”的圈层结构,空间差异较大,后者表现为“岛型—面状”的空间结构,空间差异较小;(2)人口半城镇化总体空间格局较为稳定,高/低值空间趋同、聚集分布,热点区、次热点区连片分布于主城和渝西片区,冷点区、次冷点区多位于渝东南和渝东北片区;(3)经济因素、社会因素与人口半城镇化率均呈现正相关关系,推动效应显著,影响程度在空间上大致沿“西南—东北”方向梯次递减。最后提出优化城镇、产业空间结构,破除城乡二元的户籍约束,建立覆盖城乡的医疗卫生保障制度等建议。

Based on GIS technology,the trend analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis and PCA-GWR model were used to quantitatively analyze the sequential characteristics,spatial differences and spatial correlation features of population semi-urbanization in Chongqing,and reveal its influencing factors and spatial differentiation.The results showed that:(1)the population semi-urbanization in Chongqing could be divided into the rapid growth stage and the fluctuation lowing stage with significant internal differences.There was a dual spatial structure,in which the main city and western Chongqing region were higher while the southeast and northeast Chongqing regions were lower.The former presented the circle layer structure of“high center-low periphery”with larger spatial differences,while the latter presented the spatial structure of“island-surface”with smaller spatial differences;(2)the overall spatial framework of population semi-urbanization was relatively stable with high/low spatial convergence and aggregated distribution.Hot point area and secondary hot point area were continuously distributed in the main city and western Chongqing region,while cold point area and secondary cold point area were mostly located in the southeast and northeast Chongqing regions;(3)there was a positive correlation between economic factors,social factors and population semi-urbanization rate,which had a remarkable driving effect,and the influence degree progressively decreased approximately along the direction of“southwest-northeast”in space.Finally,the optimization of urban and industrial spatial structures,the eradication of urban and rural household register constraints,the establishment of a medical and health security system covering both urban and rural areas as well as other suggestions were put forward.