马斯克林高压的周期变化和突变特征分析

Analysis of the periodicity and mutation characteristics of Mascarene high

利用1948-2015年的NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,对马斯克林高压的周期变化进行研究,客观定义了马斯克林高压的4个特征参数,分析其周期变化特征、季节变化特征及突变检验。结果表明:马斯克林高压季节变化特征明显,其高压中心位置夏、秋季西进、北抬,春季东退;高压中心强度冬、秋季一致增强,冬季达到最强,春季减弱,夏季达到最弱。马斯克林高压的周期变化特征为多波动性,1975年为面积指数和强度指数突变增长年,1975年前后变化明显;马斯克林高压面积指数和强度指数在1948-1985年的主周期为7 a,1985-2015年的主周期为3~5 a。

By using the NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis data from 1948 to 2015,the periodic variation of Mascarene high were studied,and the four characteristics parameters are objectively defined to describe the Mascarene high.I analyze its characteristics of periodic variation,seasonal variation and mutation test.The results show that Mascarene high’s characteristics of seasonal variation is evident.Center position moves westward and northward in summer and autumn,retreats eastward in spring.The intensity of center increases consistently in winter and autumn,and changes strongest in winter.The intensity of center decreases in spring and changes weakest in summer.The periodic variation of Mascarene high is multi wave feature.Area index and intensity index were mutated in 1975,which changes significantly.The main cycle of the area index and intensity index of the Mascarene high pressure from 1948 to 1985 is 7 years,and main cycle from 1985 to 2015 is 3-5 years.