基于灰色关联分析和熵权法的山区干线公路事故影响因素研究

Research on influencing factors of highway accident in mountainous arterial highway based on grey correlation analysis and entropy weight method

山区干线公路受地形条件限制,道路线形指标变化明显,在山区干线公路总里程与交通量高速增长情况下,交通安全问题日益凸显。结合山区干线公路系统的复杂性及灰色特点,从人、车、路、环境4方面对山区干线公路交通事故的影响因素进行分析,选择山区干线公路交通事故的影响因素为因素行为序列,事故数、死亡人数,受伤人数等3项指标为特征行为序列,以山区干线公路事故数据为例,结合灰色关联度法与熵权法计算交通事故影响因素的综合关联度,进行关联系数差值分析得出交通事故主要影响因素为超速行驶、纵坡坡度、弯坡组合、小半径路段、坡长、视距不良及速度差大等。以期为山区干线公路交通事故防治工作提供资料。

Restricted by the terrain conditions,road alignment index of mountain roads is obviously changed.Under the condition of the rapid growth of total mileages and traffic volumes of the trunk road in mountainous area,traffic safety problems have become increasingly prominent.Combining with the complexity and gray characteristic of the highway system in mountainous area,the main factors of traffic accidents on mountainous highway are analyzed from the aspects of people,vehicles,roads and environment.The factors influencing the selection of traffic accidents in mountainous highway are the sequence of factors and behaviors,the number of accidents,the number of deaths and the wounded were taken as the sequence of characteristic behaviors.Taking the data of highway accidents in mountainous area as an example,the comprehensive correlation calculation of traffic accident factors is based on grey relational analysis method and entropy method.The correlation coefficient difference analysis shows that the main influencing factors of the traffic accident are overspeed,longitudinal slope,curved slope combination,small radius section,slope length,bad sight distance and large differences of speed.We hope that it can provide information for the prevention and control of traffic accidents in mountainous arterial highways.