百名经济学家预期我国经济增长将逐渐恢复--2020年一季度中国百名经济学家信心调查报告

The Economists Expect China’s Economic Growth to Recover Gradually Report of the Survey on the Confidence of About 100 Chinese Economists in Q12020

国家统计局中国经济景气监测中心于2020年3月开展的中国百名经济学家信心调查显示,一季度经济学家信心指数低于临界值,其中即期经济景气指数大幅回落至开展调查以来最低点,但预期经济景气指数明显上升。经济学家认为新冠肺炎疫情在全球扩散蔓延严重冲击国际经济贸易,导致短期内各国经济普遍下滑,过半数经济学家预期2020年全球经济负增长。经济学家预期我国经济增长将逐渐恢复,预期就业压力上升,对外贸易萎缩,但物价水平将有所回落。

China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center(CEMAC)of the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS)con ducted a survey on the confidence of about 100 Chinese economists in March 2020,according to which,the Economists Con fide nee In dex(ECI)was below the threshold in the first quarter(Q1)of 2020.Specifically,the Current Economic Climate Index fell sharply to the lowest point since the launch of the survey;while the Expected Economic Climate Index rose significantly.