经济体制改革绩效的过程溢出与空间关联性研究

Research on the Process Spillover and Spatial Correlation of China's Economic System Reform Performance

文章根据经济转型理论,把我国经济体制改革过程的绩效变化划分为经济结构的绩效变化阶段与经济总量的绩效变化阶段,采用测算技术创新效率DEA的Malmquist指数方法测算我国经济体制改革两阶段的绩效指数。结果发现,东部地区两阶段绩效指数都较高,西部地区都较低,中部地区介于二者之间。进而分别构建两阶段的动态空间面板模型,模型结果表明,两阶段经济体制改革绩效呈显著的空间正相关关系,经济结构的绩效变化与经济总量的绩效变化之间互有溢出效应;分地区看,经济结构的绩效对经济总量的绩效溢出在部分西部地区与中部地区较明显,经济总量的绩效对经济结构的绩效溢出在东部与部分中部地区较明显。

According to the theory of economic transformation,this paper divides the performance changes of China's economic restructuring process into two stages:the performance changes of economic structure and the performance changes of economic aggregate.And then the paper uses Malmquist index method for measuring technological innovation efficiency DEA to measure the performance index in the two stages of China's economic reform.The results show that the two-stage performance index is relatively high in the eastern region,relatively low in the western region,and intermediate in the central region.Then the paper further constructs the two-stage dynamic spatial panel model,whose results show that the performance of the two-stage economic system reform presents a significant positive spatial correlation,and there exists a spillover effect between the performance change of economic structure and the performance change of economic aggregate.By region,the performance spillover of economic structure to economic aggregate is more obvious in some west and central regions,while the performance spillover of economic aggregate to economic structure is more obvious in the eastern regions and some central regions.