鲁中地区初霜日、终霜日及无霜期变化特征分析

The variation characteristics analysis of the initial frost day,final frost day and frost-free period in Luzhong area

利用鲁中地区及周边国家气象站资料,采用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall突变检测、滑动T检验、Pearson相关分析、ArcGIS空间插值等方法,对鲁中地区初霜日、终霜日及无霜期的时空变化特征及其与气候因子、地理因子的相关关系进行分析。结果表明,鲁中地区初霜日呈显著推迟、终霜日呈显著提前、无霜期呈显著延长的趋势,初霜日、终霜日及无霜期突变年份分别为2003、1996、2003年。初霜日、终霜日及无霜期与气温相关性较好。初霜日、终霜日及无霜期空间分布不均匀,中部山区初霜日出现较早,向东西两侧依次逐渐推迟;终霜日最早出现在西北部,中部及昌邑-潍坊-安丘一带终霜期出现较晚,最晚为莱芜、临朐、潍坊一带;无霜期最长出现在西北部,最短出现在中部及南部山区。初霜日、终霜日分别与海拔高度和经度呈正相关,并达到极显著水平,无霜期与海拔高度呈负相关,受海拔高度的影响达显著水平。

In order to better grasp the impact of frost-free period on agricultural production in Luzhong area and improve the prediction of frost,making full use of national meteorological stations in Luzhong area to use linear trend estimation method,Mann-Kendall mutation analysis,T Sliding,ArcGIS spatial interpolation and other methods analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of frost,the first day and the frost-free period and their relationship with climatic factors and geographical factors in Luzhong area.The results showed that the first frost day was significantly delayed,the final frost day was significantly advanced and the frost-free period was significantly extended in the Luzhong area.The years of mutation were 2003 and 1996 and 2003,respectively.The initial frost day and final frost day and frost-free period were closely related to temperature.The distribution of initial frost day and final frost day and frost-free period was uneven.The first frost days appeared earlier in the central mountainous areas,and gradually delayed from the east and west to the sides.The final frost day first appeared in the northwest.Later was the central and Changyi-Weifang-Anqiu area and the latest was Laiwu,Linqu,Weifang area.The frost-free period was the longest in the northwest,and the shortest appeared in the central and southern mountains.The initial frost day and the final frost day were positively correlated with altitude and longitude and respectively reached a very significant level.The frost-free period was negatively correlated with altitude,and reached a significant level with the influence of altitude.