基于GRA和对数回归的广西水路货运发展研究

Research on regional waterway freight transport development based on GRA and LRA

研究水路货运量及其影响因素对促进水路货运发展和优化物流空间布局具有重要意义.以广西区域水路货运为研究对象,利用灰关联得到影响水路货运量的外部环境因素;以有无考虑政策因素分别建立水路货运量的对数回归模型和虚变量回归模型;利用Granger因果检验分析货运量与其主要影响因素的互动关系.结果表明:该组合模型的预测精度均高于96%,为研究区域水路货运发展提供了一种可行的分析范式.

Waterway transportation is an economical and environmentally friendly mode of freight transportation.The development of waterway freight transportation(WFV)is conducive to improving the green level of the transportation supply chain.The study of WFV and its influencing factors is benefit and positively significant for promoting the development of waterway transportation and realizing a green economy.Taking Guangxi of China as the research case,firstly,the main external factors which affect WFV are obtained by using grey relational analysis(GRA);Then,the logarithmic regression analysis(LRA)model of WFV and the regression model with virtual variable under or without government policy influence are established;finally,Granger causality test is used for analyzing the interaction between external environmental factors and changes in WFV.Quantitative analysis shows that the prediction accuracy of the model is higher than 96%,which can predict the development trend of GuangxiWaterway Freight more accurately.