基于聚类分析的甘肃省静态与动态农业生态服务价值时空分布和变化趋势

Spatial-temporal distribution and variation tendency on static and dynamic agriculturalecosystem services value based on the clustering analysis in Gansu province

以生态服务功能价值当量因子法估算了2008—2017年甘肃省农业生态服务静态价值构成和不同类型生态服务功能静态价值,在此基础上,考虑到农业生态服务的空间动态性,根据聚类分层分析不同服务功能的权重比赋加优先指数估算了各项生态服务功能的动态价值构成,并对其时空变化与时空分布进行了探究。结果表明,2008—2017年,甘肃省农业生态服务功能动态价值逐年增长,不同功能动态价值贡献差异较大,食物生产与其他服务功能动态价值相关性最低;在此期间,甘肃省农业生态服务静态总价值达21873.4亿元,而动态总价值为18345.8亿元,相比于静态价值,各项动态功能价值均降低。对其动态价值变化趋势进行冷热点预测发现,甘肃省农业生态环境变化不稳定,各服务功能构成不均衡,且弹性较差,恢复力较弱。甘肃省亟需开展农业生态服务功能建设,大力发展农业经济,积极建设生态农业,以保持农业生态平衡,推动农业生态系统可持续发展和提高农业生态系统服务功能价值。

The composition of agricultural ecological services static value and different types of ecological service functions static value in Gansu province from 2008 to 2017 was estimated by the ecological service function value equivalent factor method.In consideration of the spatial dynamics character of agricultural ecological services,the dynamic value composition of various ecological services was estimated by the weight ratio assignment of different service functions based on clustering and stratification and priority index.And the temporal-spatial distribution of the dynamic value of agro-ecological services in Gansu province was studied.The results showed that the dynamic value of agricultural ecological service functions in Gansu province increased by years from 2008 to 2017.Different dynamic value contributions varied greatly.Grain conservation and other service functions had less correlation with the dynamic value.Total static value of agricultural ecological services in Gansu province from 2008 to 2017 reached 2187.34 billion yuan.The total dynamic value was 1834.58 billion yuan.Compared with static value,the value of each dynamic function reduced.The results of variation trend of dynamic value predicted with hots-colds pots found that changes in the agro-ecological environment in Gansu province were instability.The composition of service functions was unbalanced,as well as the elasticity was poor and restorative force was weak.To sum up,Gansu province is in urgent need of the construction of agricultural ecological service functions vigorously developing agricultural economy,actively constructing ecological agriculture,in order to maintain the balance of agricultural ecology,promote the sustainable development of agricultural ecosystems,and increase the value of agricultural ecosystem services.