试析民进党再次上台以来台湾地区与日本关系新态势——基于台日所谓“海洋国家”国际角色构想的考察

On the New Situation of Taiwan-Japan Relations since the DPP Came to Power Again——An Investigation on the International Role of the So-called “Maritime States” between Taiwan and Japan

从对外政策分析的角色理论视角看,决策者对其所属行为体的国际角色构想与该行为体的涉外政策行为之间存在因果关系。考察台湾地区和日本的国际角色构想对把握台日关系内在逻辑与规律、预测其发展趋势以有效应对具有重要现实意义。民进党当局对台湾的所谓"海洋国家"国际角色构想与日本海洋国家国际角色构想均渲染西方自由民主价值观优越性,并依其构建"价值观同盟",强调"海洋特质"并从战略高度重视与所谓"海洋亚洲"联结,制造海陆对立,台日关系呈现构筑实质性全方位"战略伙伴关系"的新态势。台日所谓"海洋国家"国际角色构想也将对台日关系的未来发展产生重要影响,很可能驱使台日实质性"安全战略伙伴关系"进一步强化,甚至在中长期内出台日本版"与台湾关系法"。在推动两岸关系和平发展、推进祖国完全统一进程中,应高度重视台日在所谓"海洋国家"国际角色构想下相勾连的危害。

From the perspective of the role theory of foreign policy analysis,we can see that there is a causal relationship between the decision-maker’s conception of the actor’s international role and the actor’s foreign policy behavior.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the international role conception of Taiwan and Japan in order to grasp the inherent logic and law of the relationship between the two,and predict its development trend.In fact,the DPP authorities’international role conception of the so-called"maritime states"is the same as that of Japan,which all exaggerates the superiority of Western liberal democratic values and builds"value alliances"in accordance with it.On the other hand,it also emphasizes"marine characteristics",attaching great importance to the connection with the so-called"maritime Asia"from a strategic point of view and creating the confrontation between the sea and the land.As a result,the relationship between Taiwan and Japan presents a new trend of building a substantial all-round"strategic partnership".Furthermore,the conception will also exert an important impact on the future development of the Taiwan-Japan relations,which is likely to further strengthen their substantial"strategic security partnership"and even introduce the Japanese version of the"Act of Taiwan Relations"in the medium and long term.Therefore,in the process of promoting the peaceful development of the cross-Strait relations and the complete reunification of our motherland,we should attachégreat importance to the dangers of collaboration between Taiwan and Japan under the concept of the international role of the so-called"maritime states".