美国与台湾地区领导人选举对两岸关系影响分析:新古典现实主义的视角

The Impact of the Leadership Election between the United States and Taiwan on the Cross-Strait Relations:A Neo-Classical Realist Perspective

美国总统选举与台湾地区领导人选举将如何形塑一段时期内的两岸关系走向,是本文试图探讨的核心问题。对于此问题,既有研究从美国与台湾地区各自的视角切入,形成了美国选举对台政策的"直接影响"和"间接影响",以及台湾地区选举对"美国对台政策选择"和"台湾当局两岸政策选择"的影响四个解释视角。然而,既有研究的视角大都仅聚焦于单方内部选举对两岸关系的冲击,却忽略了美国与台湾地区同一选举周期所产生的联动效应。考虑到美台两地的选举周期具有一致性,这种联动效应对理解两岸关系的走向应具有重要的参考意义。有鉴于此,本文在修正新古典现实主义的基础之上,以中国的持续崛起为前置性变量,以美国与中国台湾地区的政治精英共识和社会共识的一致/分裂为自变量,构建一个能够连接美台领导人选举的分析框架。同时,为了展现其中的联动效应,本文还援引了2016年的美台领导人选举作为"解释性案例",用以验证本文分析框架的运作逻辑。最后,结论部分基于分析框架对美台2020年选举周期做了四种组合的预测,并辨析它们对两岸关系的影响程度。

How the presidential election in the United States and the leadership election in Taiwan will shape the trend of the cross-Strait relations in a period of time is the core issue this paper attempts to explore.For this issue,the existing studies conducted respectively from the angles of the United States and Taiwan have formed four explanatory perspectives,namely,the"direct impact"and"indirect impact"of the US election on Taiwan policy,as well as the impact of the Taiwan election on the"US policy choice"and"Taiwan authorities cross-Strait policy choice".However,most of the existing studies focus on the impact of unilateral internal elections on the cross-Strait relations,but ignore the"linkage effect"produced by the same election cycle in the United States and Taiwan.Considering the consistency of the election cycle between the United States and Taiwan,this linkage effect should have important reference significance to the understanding of the trend of the cross-Strait relations.In view of this,based on the revision of Neoclassical Realism,this paper takes the continuous rise of China as a pre variable and the inter-consistency/split of political elites and social consensuses between the United States and Taiwan as an independent variable,constructing an analytical framework that can connect the selection of American and Taiwan leaders.At the same time,in order to demonstrate its linkage effect,this paper also quotes the US and Taiwan leadership elections in 2016 as an"explanatory case"to verify the operation logic of this analytical framework.Finally,based on the analytical framework,this paper makes four combinations of predictions on the upcoming election cycle in the US and Taiwan in 2020,and analyzes their impact on the cross-Strait relations.