“北约过时论”的历史演变与现实意涵

The Historical Evolution and Realistic Implications of “NATO Obsolescence”

"北约过时论"是一种质疑北约存续价值和意义的观点,主要反映了欧美同盟内部对北约前途和命运的反思。从北约成立至今,欧美同盟内部大致出现了三次关于北约"过时"的讨论热潮。第一次出现于20世纪60–70年代,以戴高乐为代表的部分欧洲人对美国在北约中的霸主地位以及北约军事结构的超国家性质深表不满,法国因此退出了北约军事一体化机构;第二次出现在冷战结束之初,欧美有相当一部分人认为北约需要对抗的敌人苏联的不复存在使北约缺乏了存在的必要前提条件,欧洲盟国应当支持欧盟加强自身军事力量的建设;第三次是美国特朗普政府时期,特朗普总统对北约防务责任的分担状况极为不满,因而对美国过去一贯大力支持北约的做法产生了怀疑。三次"北约过时论"的出现都有其特定的背景、内涵和目的,体现了欧美同盟内部长期存在的分歧和矛盾。总的看,关于北约是否应该存续下去,欧美同盟内部大致存在两种观点:一种认为北约的存续对西方的安全和繁荣至关重要,不仅应该延续而且还应该加强;另一种认为北约已经没有存续的必要性,应当解散或加以替代。客观上看,无论是特朗普时代还是后特朗普时代,美国出于维护自身世界霸主地位的需要非常需要北约这个战略工具的大力支持。只要美国处在世界霸主的位置上,北约就不会"过时"。面对北约未来可能发生的变化,中国需要采取相应措施加以应对。

"NATO obsolescence" is a view which questions the value and significance of the existence of NATO.It just embodies the reflections within the European-American Alliance on the future and destiny of NATO.Since the founding of NATO,discussions about "NATO obsolescence" in the European-American Alliance have occurred for roughly three times.The first time was in the 1960s and 1970s.Some Europeans,led by General Charles de Gaulle,were deeply dissatisfied both with the dominant power position of the United States in NATO and the supranational nature of its military structure.Thus,France withdrew from NATO’s integrated military command.The second time was around the end of the Cold War.A considerable number of people in Europe and America believed that the disappearance of NATO’s enemy-the Soviet Union-deprived the necessary preconditions of NATO’s existence,and the European allies ought to support the EU in strengthening its own military strength.The third time happened when Trump Administration came to power,as President Trump was deeply dissatisfied with the sharing of NATO’s defense responsibilities and questioned the United States’ strong support for NATO in the past.Each of the three discussions about the view of "NATO obsolescence" had its specific background,connotation and purpose,which reflected the long-standing differences and contradictions within the European-American Alliance.In retrospect,there are broadly two opposing views within the Atlantic Alliance about whether NATO should survive:one is that NATO’s survival is essential to the security and prosperity of the Western world,and thus NATO should be sustained and even strengthened;the other is that NATO is no longer necessary and should be abandoned or replaced.This article argues that NATO will continue to exist whether in the Trump era or the post-Trump era,for the United States needs the strong support of NATO as a strategic tool to maintain its world hegemony.As long as the United States remains the world’s dominant power,NATO will not become obsolete.So,China needs to take appropriate measures to respond to any possible changes of NATO in the future.