供给侧结构性改革的“去产能”效应测度

De-capacity Effect of Supply-Side Structural Reform

研究目标:定量测度供给侧结构性改革的政策效果。研究方法:以2015年供给侧结构性改革的启动为准自然实验,构建双重差分模型判别供给侧结构性改革的“去产能”效果及其对企业绩效的影响。研究发现:供给侧结构性改革实现了“去产能”的效果,同时也显著提升了企业绩效,但仍然存在明显的提升空间,而政策效果正在迅速减弱甚至消失,深化改革刻不容缓。进一步研究发现,供给侧结构性改革的政策效果表现出显著的差异化特征。具体而言,民营企业与国有企业同样取得了显著“去产能”和提升绩效的效果;与政府干预程度较弱的地区相比,政府干预程度较强地区“去产能”效果更为明显,但企业绩效的提升效果并无显著差异;西部地区同时实现了“去产能”和企业绩效提升,中部地区只实现了“去产能”,而东部地区则只实现了企业绩效提升。研究创新:定量分析了供给侧结构性改革对“去产能”和提升绩效的影响,测度了政策效果的时间趋势和差异化特征。研究价值:在政策效果定量评价的基础上,为进一步有的放矢地制定政策和精准施策提供科学依据与数据支持。

Research Objectives:Quantitatively measure the policy effects of supply-side structural reforms.Research Methods:Taking the launch of the supply-side structural reform in 2015 as a quasi-natural experiment,a difference-in-difference model is constructed to judge the“de-capacity”effect of the supply-side structural reform and its impact on corporate performance.Research Findings:Supply-side structural reforms have achieved the policy goal of“de-capacity”and have also significantly improved corporate performance,but the effects of the policy are rapidly diminishing.Further research finds that the policy effects of structural reforms on the supply side show significant differentiation.Specifically,private enterprises have also achieved significant“de-capacity”and improved performance same as state-owned enterprises;compared with regions with weaker government intervention,the“de-capacity”effect is more pronounced in areas with stronger government intervention,but there is no significant difference in the improvement of corporate performance;the western region achieved both“de-capacity”and corporate performance improvement,while the central region only achieved“de-capacity”and the eastern region only achieved corporate performance improvement.Research Innovations:Quantitatively analyze the impact of supply-side structural reform on“de-capacity”and improve performance,and measure the time trend and differentiation characteristics of policy effects.Research Value:On the basis of quantitative evaluation of policy effects,it provides scientific basis and data support for further targeted policy formulation and precise policy implementation.