“大水漫灌”还是“精准滴灌”:基于时-频域动态视角下房价调控机制研究

“Flooding Irrigation”or“Precision Drip Irrigation”:Housing Price Regulation Mechanism Based on Time-Frequency Domain Dynamic Perspective

基于时-频域动态视角采用小波分析模型,文章结合高频序列和低频数据在同一框架内研究总量货币政策、结构性信贷政策和房价波动三者之间不同时期的动态影响关系,并进一步甄别供需调控对房价的异质性影响。实证发现,作为房价调控的手段,结构性信贷要优于总量货币政策,而结构性信贷的影响机制是,中期时供给端调控存在非对称性,长期和超长期需求端优于供给端调控,这表明需求结构性信贷政策+总量货币政策工具的调控效果更佳。因此,应用价值体现在遏制房价的过程中,政府应该让“大水漫灌”式的总量货币政策用于“事前预防”,而让“精准滴灌”式的结构性信贷政策用于“事后控制”,在不同的时-频域中以前者为辅后者为主交替或协调使用,以此防止房地产市场泡沫累积而爆发风险。

In this paper,combined with high-frequency series and low-frequency data in the same framework,this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship in different periods among aggregate monetary policy,structural credit policy and housing price fluctuation based on the time-frequency dynamic perspective and the wavelet analysis model,and further distinguishes the heterogeneous impact of supply and demand regulation on house price.Empirical results show that structural credit policy is superior to aggregate monetary policy in the regulation of housing prices.The influence mechanism of structural credit policy is that there is asymmetry in supply-side regulation in the medium term,and demand regulation is superior to supply regulation in the long and ultra-long term,so the regulatory effect of demand structural credit policy+aggregate monetary policy instruments is better.Therefore,the application value in the process of curbing housing prices is that“flooding irrigation”aggregate monetary policy tends to“prevent beforehand”and“precise drip irrigation”structural credit policy tends to“control afterward”.In different time-frequency domains,the latter is supplemented by the former,which is mainly used alternately or coordinately to prevent the accumulation and outbreak risk of real estate market bubble.