经济学实验中的信念诱导与测度:理论、方法与应用

Belief Elicitation in Economic Experiments: Theory, Methodology and Applications

在实证研究中,经济学家不仅关心人们的决策,还希望观察决策背后的信念,进而更全面地衡量和改进政策设计。实验室中的信念诱导方法,为观测决策个体的信念提供了解决方案。本文对信念诱导的理论、方法与应用进行了系统的综述。在梳理测度方法的基本原则和性质的基础上,对测度方法选取与被试风险偏好的关系、各种测度方法的实证比较、方法的可操作性与潜在问题等进行了总结与讨论。在经济学实验中应用信念诱导的方法,不但能观测信念对市场交易、双向拍卖、公共物品、信任与合作等决策行为的影响,而且为这些领域的研究提供了更多的数据和更广阔的思路,帮助经济学家更深入地了解人们的经济行为及其背后的动因,为行为经济学实证研究提供了重要的补充。

In the empirical research,economists not only care about people s decisions,but are also interested in the beliefs behind these decisions.The belief data helps economists to better understand reasons underlying people s economic decisions,in order to conduct more comprehensive tests of economic theories and to improve policy design in social or economic decision-making environments.Belief elicitation in laboratory experiments allows economists to quantitatively measure decision-makers beliefs.The observed belief data enriches the set of relevant variables and provides substantial support for the micro-foundation of policy prescriptions.This paper provides an extensive review of the literature on belief elicitation,including the methodology,laboratory implementation,and applications in various economic experiments.We review the elicitation scoring rules from a decision theory perspective,detailing the comparisons between measurement methods,the relation with risk attitudes,the balance between belief accuracy and decision quality,and the potential issues involved in the laboratory implementation.We then survey the existing literature which applies the belief elicitation methodology to study the market games,double-auction,public-goods games,trust and cooperation using laboratory experiments.These studies provide a new and useful perspective on behavioral decision-making in the relevant decision-making environments.With the belief data,economists are able to gain more insights towards the driving forces of individuals social and economic behavior.