计量与演化视角下的新兴技术识别研究进展评述

Review of Research Progress on Emerging Technologies Identification Based on Quantitative and Evolutionary Perspectives

新兴技术识别一直是科技创新管理、科技政策制定和技术竞争情报研究领域关注的问题。学术界已经对此开展了大量的学术研究,然而“新兴技术”概念的界定问题却严重制约着新兴技术识别的发展,其根源在于当前研究实践中存在两种迥异的认知视角:计量视角与演化视角。在这两种视角共同的作用下,新兴技术的概念边界不断扩展,因此,厘清新兴技术识别概念的基础就是首先理解两种视角不同的特点与应用场景。本文首先归纳了一个由新兴技术识别的特征、数据表示与识别方法三部分构成的框架,该框架能够较为全面地涵盖当前计量视角下新兴技术识别的研究进展。然后通过文献分析发现,演化视角下的新兴技术识别方法更关注于以下四个方面:基于技术重组的根本性创新,学科、技术网络融合的协同效应,技术实用性与功能性驱动效应,以及颠覆性创新问题,而这四种特征推动了演化视角数据表示与识别方法的转化。最后,本文对新兴技术识别数据表示与方法的拓展进行了初步的展望。本文希望通过比较不同视角下新兴技术识别实践工作,为未来深入开展新兴技术识别活动提供参考。

Emerging technologies identification has always been the focus of scientific and technological innovation management,scientific and technological policy-making,and technologically competitive intelligence research.Although significant academic research has been performed in this field,the conceptual definition of“emerging technology”has seriously restricted its development,which is attributed to expanding the conceptual boundary of emerging technologies from two different cognitive perspectives:quantitative and evolutionary.Therefore,the basis for clarifying the concept of emerging technologies identification is to first understand the characteristics and application scenarios of the two perspectives.In this paper,first,a framework consisting of three parts is proposed:characteristics,data representations and methods of emerging technologies identification.This framework can comprehensively cover the practical progress of emerging technologies identification from the current quantitative perspective.Subsequently,through literature comparison,it was found that the rationality of the evolutionary perspective lies in the fact that the proposed framework cannot explain the following four issues:radical innovation based on technological recombination,fusion effect of disciplines and technological networks,driving effect by technological practicability and efficiency,and disruptive innovation,which promote the transformation of data representation and recognition methods from the evolutionary perspective.Finally,preliminary research prospects of the development of data representation and recognition methods of emerging technologies identification are described.The research will provide references for the further development of emerging technologies identification activities,by comparing its understanding and practice from two different perspectives.