基于时间分段的改进电量预测方法

Improved Electricity Predication Method Based on Time Segmentation

本文提出基于时间分段的改进预测方法,将一年12个月分解为电量已知与未知时间段,在对后者的电量进行预测的基础上,结合已知电量对预测结果进行修正,提高了电量预测准确度。通过实际案例分析及各方法下预测结果的方差分析,证明时间分段预测可提升预测方法的合理性,从而获得可靠性更高的预测结果。

In this paper, an improved prediction method based on time segmentation is proposed to increase the electricity accuracy of prediction. The 12 months of the year are broken down into known and unknown periods of time.on the basis of which the electricity quantity of the latter is predicted, and the predicted results are revised by combining the known electricity quantity. To verify the feasibility, a practical case is studied using the proposed method and other common methods. The variance analysis of the prediction results indicate that the time segmentation based prediction method significantly improve the rationality and the reliability of the prediction result.