干旱区水资源利用与经济发展关系研究--以鄂尔多斯市为例

Study on the Relationship Between Water Resources Utilization and Economic Development in Arid Areas--A Case Study of Ordos City

鄂尔多斯市是内蒙古乃至我国西部经济最发达的地区,然而水资源短缺已成为经济发展的重要制约因素。利用水资源生态足迹理论、LMDI模型和Tapio脱钩模型计算该市2001-2017年的水资源生态足迹以及影响因素,并评价水资源利用与经济发展协调关系。结果表明:①17年来水资源生态足迹呈现先小幅度波动上涨、再稳步下降的总趋势,其中,农业用水是主要组成部分;技术效应是实现水资源生态足迹下降的核心驱动力。②水资源生态赤字、压力指数和万元GDP水资源生态足迹均有下降趋势,水资源利用效率逐年提高,但利用结构不合理,农业用水所占比重过大。③GDP增长与用水量处于强、弱脱钩交替的稳定状态,农业用水脱钩关系优于工业,并且从回归分析可知工业脱钩关系不稳定,需要加强产业结构调整,优化三大产业的用水比例,实现水资源可持续利用。

Ordos City is the most economically developed region in Inner Mongolia and even western China.However,the shortage of water resources has become an important restricting factor on economic development.In this paper,the water resources ecological footprint theory,LMDI model and Tapio elastic analysis were used to calculate the water resources ecological footprint and its influencing factors from 2001 to 2017,and to evaluate the coordination between usage of water resources and economic development.The results showed that:①the water resources ecological footprint had shown a general trend of increasing with small fluctuation and then decreasing steadily.Among them,agricultural production consumption was the main component.And technical effect was the core driving force to reduce the water resources ecological footprint.②Water resources ecological deficit,pressure index and the water resources ecological footprint of ten thousand Yuan GDP all presented apparent declining trend.Although the utilization efficiency of water resources increased year by year,the structure of the water resources utilization was not scientific and the water consumption of agricultural production accounted for a very high proportion.③There was a stable decoupling state between GDP growth and water consumption.Agricultural water decoupling was better than that of industry.The regression analysis showed the unstability of industrial water decoupling.Therefore,improving industrial structure and optimizing the proportion of water resources by the three major industries should be strengthened so as to reduce water consumption and achieve sustainable use of water resources.