新型城镇化、产业结构升级与中国经济增长质量

New Urbanization,Industrial Structure Upgrading and the Quality of China’s Economic Growth

该文基于空间计量与面板门槛模型,考察了新型城镇化水平、产业结构升级与中国经济增长质量间的发展关系。研究表明:新型城镇化通过优化产业结构、提高社会生产率,有效提升中国经济增长质量;产业结构升级短时期内造成经济增长乏力,但长远来看其对经济增长质量的促进作用显著;"产城"联动发展将有效提升中国经济增长质量,其中固定资产投资对中国经济增长质量提升的促进作用显著;以新型城镇化为门限变量时,传统城镇化诱发的"人口城镇化"问题给中国经济增长质量的提升带来消极影响。就协调三者间发展,该文针对性地提出相关建议措施。

Based on spatial measurement and panel threshold model,the development relationship among new urbanization level,industrial structure upgrading and the quality of China’s economic growth was investigated.Research shows that the new urbanization can effectively improve the quality of China’s economic growth by optimizing the industrial structure and increasing social productivity.The upgrading of industrial structure causes weak economic growth in the short term,but in the long run it plays a significant role in promoting the quality of economic growth.The coordinated development of“upgrading of industrial structure and new urbanization”will effectively improve the quality of China’s economic growth,in which material capital investment plays a significant role.When the threshold variable is the new urbanization,the traditional urbanization induces the problem of“population urbanization”and brings negative impact on the improvement of the quality of China’s economic growth.At the end of the paper,relevant suggestions and measures are put forward to coordinate the development among the three.