中国科技人才流动与经济增长质量的关系研究——基于空间杜宾模型的实证检验

Research on the Relationship between the Flow of Science and Technology Talents in China and the Quality of Economic Growth:An Empirical Test Based on Spatial Dubin Model

促进中国经济由高速增长向高质量发展,是党的十九大对中国经济发展作出的重要判断。基于全国30个省域(除西藏)2006-2016年的面板数据,该文首先通过计算各省域的经济增长质量具有空间自相关性,进而运用时空双固定的空间杜宾模型(SDM)对影响经济增长质量的各个因素进行实证检验,研究结果表明:各省域科技人才流动对提高本省域的经济增长质量具有明显的促进作用,但对邻接省域经济增长质量具有负向影响;科技人才聚集与本省域经济增长质量存在显著的正向相关关系,且地区经济发展水平是影响人才流动的核心要素;环境规制水平对本省域以及邻接省域经济增长质量都具有负向影响;经济结构转型与产业结构变迁对本省域经济增长质量均呈现正向相关关系。基于此,提出促进科技人才合理有序流动与提高各省域经济增长质量的相关政策建议。

Promoting China’s economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development is an important judgment made by the Party’s 19th National Congress on China’s economic development.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(excluding Tibet)in 2006—2016,the spatial auto-correlation is first calculated by calculating the economic growth quality of each province,and then the spatial and spatial dual fixed spatial Dubin model(SDM)is used to test the influence of the quality of economic growth.The empirical results of various factors show that:(1)The flow of scientific and technological talents in various provinces has a significant role in promoting the economic growth of the province,but it has a negative impact on the quality of the provincial economic growth;(2)There is a significant positive correlation between talent pooling and the quality of provincial economic growth,and the level of regional economic development is the core factor affecting the flow of talents;(3)The level of environmental regulation has a negative impact on the quality of economic growth in the studied province and adjacent provinces;(4)Economic structural transformation and industrial structure change have positive correlations with the quality of provincial economic growth.Based on these,we propose relevant policy recommendations to promote the rational and orderly flow of scientific and technological talents and improve the quality of economic growth in each province.